This is the finale of a four-game series in Cincinnati between the Reds and visiting Miami Marlins.
Cal Quantrill is scheduled to pitch for Miami while Nick Lodolo should get the nod for Cincinnati.
Marlins at Reds prediction, preview
Cal Quantrill has posted a 5.40 ERA through 76.2 innings pitched. The fastball averages 93.5 mph and the strikeout rate is 18.8%. The walk rate is decent at 7% while he’s allowed 11 home runs. The FIP is much lower at 4.39, and the BABIP is elevated at .330 while the strand rate is 68%. The hard-hit rate is 43.6% while the barrel rate is 11.2%.
Quantrill has reverse splits this season as righties have crushed him, slashing .371/.409/.654 with eight of the 11 home runs hit. He’s been better at home with a higher strikeout rate and lower home run total there.
Quantril has pitched at least five innings nine times in 17 starts. He’s yet to go at least six innings. Quantril has allowed more than three earned runs four times, but those all came before May. There’s been only one start in which he hasn’t allowed an earned run, and that was his second start of the season. Over his last seven starts, he’s allowed at least two earned runs in all. This will be the his first time facing the Reds this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Reds have struck out at the fifth-highest rate while having the 13th-best ISO. The wOBA is ninth-best in MLB.
Nick Lodolo has dealt with injuries in his young career, which has sapped a little juice. He used to boast a strikeout rate in the 29% range, but that came with suspect control. The walk rate is now only 5.2%, but the strikeout rate is down to 22%. Through 100.2 innings, Lodolo is posting a 3.58 ERA. The FIP is slightly higher at 4.16.
14 of his 15 home runs allowed have come off the bat of righties. 11 of the home runs have been served up at home. Essentially all of his numbers have been better on the road.
Lodolo has allowed more than three earned runs three times and has gone at least six innings in 10 of 18 starts. He faced Miami way back in April, going 5.2 innings, striking out four, walking two and allowing three earned runs. That game was in Miami.
The Marlins have struck out at the 24th-highest rate against left-handed pitching while being 24th in ISO. The wOBA is 17th-best.
As for bullpens, Miami has the 19th-lowest FIP while Cincinnati has the 21st-lowest.
Marlins at Reds Best Bet
Lodolo hasn’t been great at home, but I think he handles a Marlins offense that has been functioning well lately, but isn’t normally considered one of the most potent lineups in MLB. On the flip side, I have no faith in Quantril.
