Jannik Sinner is seeking his first-ever Wimbledon title, while Novak Djokovic looks to tie Roger Federer for the most Wimbledon men’s singles titles.
Let’s preview the match through the lens of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic preview
Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic are facing off in the semifinals for the second straight Grand Slam. Sinner defeated Djokovic in the French Open semifinals, but lost the final to Carlos Alcaraz. This time, he will hope to defeat Djokovic once again, but complete the job by winning the final as well. It has been an interesting path to this point for Sinner. He dominated his first three matches, winning all of them in straight sets by big margins. Then, in the Round of 16, he was down two sets to zero against Grigor Dimitrov before Dimitrov had to retire with an injury. That threw Sinner a lifeline that he took massive advantage of by defeating Ben Shelton in straight sets in the quarterfinals. Sinner needs to avoid another performance like he had against Dimitrov if he wants to win his first Wimbledon title.
Djokovic is one of the best players the sport has ever seen. He is just one Wimbledon title away from matching Federer for the all-time record in Wimbledon titles. Djokovic has made a remarkable six straight Wimbledon finals. He won four in a row from 2018-2022 (no tournament was held in 2020), then lost to Alcaraz in the 2023 and 2024 finals. If Djokovic could make it seven straight finals by defeating the world’s top-ranked player, it would be one of the great wins of his career. Especially considering the fact that Djokovic is dealing with an injury of unknown severity.
Djokovic slipped toward the end of his last match against Flavio Cobolli and tweaked something in his leg. He was able to finish the match and had a couple of days of rest after that win, but he cancelled his scheduled practice session on Thursday afternoon. Djokovic is still expected to play this match, but this practice session getting cancelled is a potential warning sign that he isn’t at 100%.
Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic pick, best bet
Sinner and Djokovic have faced off nine times in their careers. Djokovic won four of the first five meetings, but Sinner has now won four in a row. Sinner won their last matchup, just a few weeks ago at Roland Garros. He also eliminated Djokovic from the Australian Open in the semifinals. Djokovic will hope to avoid getting beaten by Sinner in three straight Grand Slam semifinals. Djokovic has defeated Sinner both times they have played at Wimbledon before, in 2022 and 2023. The question around their history is whether to trust Djokovic’s history at Wimbledon or Sinner’s recent form.
Wimbledon has been Sinner’s worst Grand Slam venue in his career. It is the only place he has never made the final, a curse he is hoping to break on Friday. He has a 69% career winning percentage on grass, compared to 80% on hard and 73% on clay. Conversely, Djokovic has an 86% career winning percentage on grass, his best record on any surface.
Assuming both players are at full health, this match will likely be determined by the strength of Sinner’s serve. He is one of the best servers in the sport, ranking fifth on tour in serve rating and first in percentage of service games won. However, Djokovic is capable of combating that. This year at Wimbledon, Djokovic has won more first serve return points and second serve return points than any player. If Sinner’s serve is off, Djokovic will punish him with excellent returns. However, if Sinner’s serve is on point, Djokovic will struggle to stop him.
My best bet is a parlay of Sinner to win the first set and to win the match. Djokovic has lost the first set in each of his past two matches, and other than in the Round of 16 against Dimitrov, Sinner has not dropped a single set all tournament. Sinner is just on another level at the moment, and with Djokovic’s injury concerns, it only makes the upset seem more unlikely. This could finally be the end of Djokovic’s reign at Wimbledon, while Sinner breaks through to a Wimbledon final at long last.
