The evening slate as part of tonight’s featured DFS slate on DraftKings is a small but mighty one; although there are just seven games, there are several compelling divisional matchups and plenty of the league’s best players, including a game between home run kings Cal Raleigh ($6,300) and Aaron Judge ($6,500).
In order to fit Big Dumper or Judge into your lineup, you’ll need to pair them with a couple of cheaper options. Here are my three favorite value options from tonight’s slate:
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st].
SP JP Sears, Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves, $7,100
This is a case of rolling with the hot hand — unlike some of the other pitchers around his price range, Sears has the potential for some huge fantasy performances, with three 20-plus-FPT outings in his last five starts, including each of his last two. He’s tossed 11.2 shutout innings over those two starts, allowing 10 baserunners while striking out 10 across that span (24.1 FPTS per game) and generating a total of 18 whiffs. The 29-year-old has been unlucky this season, with a 4.22 expected ERA that’s significantly lower than his actual 4.76 mark.
Atlanta’s offensive production this season also hasn’t matched up with its talent level. The Braves rank ninth-to-last in OPS overall, eighth-to-last against lefties, and 10th-to-last in road games. Their most dangerous hitter, All-Star starter and Home Run Derby competitor Ronald Acuña Jr. ($6,400), has cooled down after his torrid start, posting just a .748 OPS over his last 10 games (6.1 FPTS per game) despite hitting a pair of solo homers (30 FPTS) in last night’s win. Plus, likely NL Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin ($4,100) is doubtful to play tonight against the lefty, leaving the lighter-hitting Sean Murphy ($3,900) behind the dish.
3B/SS Jorge Polanco, Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, $3,600
Polanco isn’t quite a star player like his teammate Raleigh is, but he’s made valuable contributions to a Mariners team that currently sits in the final American League Wild Card spot. He’s been in pretty solid form, with a .916 OPS and 7.2 FPTS per game in his last 10 games, and he’s had two double-digit fantasy performances in his last five games after going deep last night (16 FPTS). He also has a .775 OPS against right-handed pitchers and a .722 mark against southpaws, so he’ll have the platoon edge tonight against Marcus Stroman ($6,000), especially in a park that’s the fourth-most homer-friendly for lefties.
Plus, New York’s pitching has been dreadful in July. The Yankees have gone 3-5 this month but have a putrid 8.06 ERA to show for it, and I doubt that their problems will get any better tonight with Stroman on the hill. Stroman has only made five starts this season after missing more than two months with knee inflammation, but they haven’t been good; he’s yet to last past the fifth inning and given up three or more earned runs in four of his five starts. He’d rank in the bottom quintile in 12 of the 13 Statcast categories if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify, and while he excels at inducing ground balls, Polanco has always hit fly balls at an above-average clip.
OF Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, $4,000
Langford has had an incredible series against the Angels so far, going four-for-12 with a homer, a double, and four RBI’s (16.3 FPTS per game), with all of the damage coming in the last two games. To be fair, he had been in somewhat of a slump entering the series, so I might be jumping the gun, but he clearly likes what Los Angeles’ pitchers have shown him. The 23-year-old has plenty of tools, notching barrels at a 77th-percentile clip, and his expected batting average and expected slugging percentage are slightly higher than what he’s actually produced.
It wouldn’t exactly be unusual for a player to string together three good games in a row against the Angels. Their pitching staff has the league’s seventh-worst ERA, both overall and at home. Angel Stadium, while a pitcher’s park overall, is one of the league’s most homer-friendly, and Langford’s homer rate is up more than 50% relative to last season. Jack Kochanowicz ($6,200) has given up two or more runs in all but two of his starts this season, is tied for 12th in the American League in homers conceded, and ranks in just the sixth percentile in average exit velocity. Kochanowicz relies on his sinker, and Langford has produced his highest run value against sinkers this season.
