This is the opener of a three-game series in Cincinnati between the Reds and visiting Colorado Rockies.
German Marquez is scheduled to pitch for Colorado while Chase Burns should get the nod for Cincinnati.
Rockies at Reds prediction, preview
German Marquez was teetering on being The One to conquer Coors Field back in the day, but alas, like Father Time, Coors Field is undefeated. At 30 years old, Marquez still averages 95.3 mph on the fastball but the strikeout rate is only 15.3% while the swinging strike rate is 8.9%. The ERA is 5.84, but he’s been unlucky with a .346 BABIP and 59.4% strand rate. That said, the FIP is still 4.38.
Marquez has been decent against righties, but lefties have hit eight of the 11 home runs off him. Pitching at Coors Field is tough, and the numbers aren’t great, but Marquez hasn’t been much better on the road.
Marquez has allowed more than three earned runs eight times. He’s pitched over five innings three times. In his most recent start, he did go six innings but allowed six earned runs at home against the Chicago White Sox. This will be his first time facing the Reds this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Reds have struck out at the fifth-highest rate while having the 13th-best ISO. The wOBA is ninth-best in MLB.
Chase Burns was a ballyhooed prospect, throwing triple-digits complemented by a devastating slider. He was selected with the second overall pick by the Reds in the 2024 MLB draft. He skyrocketed through the minor league system and has predictably struggled so far in the majors. Most young pitchers do. Granted, it’s only been 10 innings, but he’s already walked six batters and allowed nine earned runs. But, but, but….While the ERA is 8.1, the FIP is much lower at 4.48. The BABIP is an elevated .423, strand rate is 49.4%, strikeout rate is 30.6% and the average fastball velocity is 98.1 mph.
Burns pitched five and 0.1 innings in his first two starts, giving up three and five earned runs. There was chatter about Burns tipping pitches. In his most recent outing, he went 4.2 innings in Philadelphia, struck out seven and allowed only one earned run. Let’s not forget that he’s only 22 years old and has three MLB starts under his belt.
The Rockies have struck out at the highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 16th in ISO. The wOBA is 28th-best.
As for bullpens, Colorado has the 28th-lowest FIP while Cincinnati has the 21st-lowest.
Rockies at Reds Best Bet
Burns has struggled, but I believe in the stuff. The Rockies provide the perfect storm, as they aren’t great on the road and strike out at a high rate. The control is an issue for Burns, but I’m expecting him to show why he was selected number two overall. On the flip side, Marquez’s struggles haven’t been solely about pitching in Coors Field, as he’s struggled on the road as well. I think that continues in Great American Small Park.
