Two-time defending Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz takes on the American Taylor Fritz in the semifinals at the All England Club.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz preview
Carlos Alcaraz is the man to beat at Wimbledon. He is the two-time defending champion at the All England Club, looking to make it a three-peat this year. While he is the second-ranked player in the world, behind Jannik Sinner, he is undoubtedly the scariest player to face in a Grand Slam, particularly Wimbledon. Alcaraz already has five Grand Slam titles, including the most recent one at Roland Garros, where he defeated Jannik Sinner in an all-time great match. Of the past eight Grand Slams, Alcaraz has won half of them. He will look to move on to another final by defeating Taylor Fritz in this semifinal match.
Taylor Fritz is in his second career Grand Slam semifinal. Despite his immense talent, Fritz has disappointed in Grand Slams throughout his career. Last year’s US Open was his first time breaking through to a semifinal, a match where he defeated his fellow countryman Frances Tiafoe to advance to the final. Fritz lost that final to World No. 1 Jannik Sinner, but it seemed like a turning point in his career. Unfortunately, Fritz started this year with a third-round exit in the Australian Open and a first-round shock loss in the French Open. It looked like it could be another disastrous Grand Slam at Wimbledon when Fritz went down two sets to zero in the first round. He stormed back, winning that match in five sets, but then required five sets to win again in the second round. However, Fritz has looked much better since those two early scares and now finds himself in a semifinal against Carlos Alcaraz.
Alcaraz vs. Fritz pick, best bet
Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz have only faced each other twice in their careers, and never at a Grand Slam. Alcaraz has won both previous meetings, with Fritz never even taking a set against him. Over the past year, nobody has been better than Carlos Alcaraz on grass. He holds a 12-0 record on the surface, including last year’s Wimbledon championship. However, Taylor Fritz is not far behind. He is 12-2 on grass over the past 52 weeks and has won both of his titles in 2025 on grass. Alcaraz didn’t participate in either of those tournaments that Fritz won on grass leading up to Wimbledon, but they have Fritz’s confidence on this surface at an all-time high.
Taylor Fritz’s serve has carried him through this tournament so far. He has 95 aces so far in this tournament, the second-most of any man in the field. He has won 82% of his first-serve points so far at Wimbledon, tied with Jannik Sinner for the best mark of any of the four semifinalists. His serve has been one of the best in the world over the past year. Over the last 52 weeks, he ranks second on tour in serve rating, first-serve points won and serving games won. He will need his serve to be at its best to contend in this match.
Carlos Alcaraz is the perfect counter to Fritz’s incredible serve. Alcaraz ranks first on tour in first-serve return points won and return games won. So far at this tournament, only Novak Djokovic has won more first-serve return points. His ability to return a great serve is why he has been so dominant against Fritz in the past. While he is undoubtedly the best player in the world on grass, it hasn’t been completely smooth sailing through this tournament. Just like Fritz, he was forced to a fifth set in the first round. He then needed four sets in two of his four subsequent matches.
My prediction for this match is that Alcaraz once again requires four sets. Taylor Fritz will likely have a set where his serve is simply unstoppable and he manages to break Alcaraz or win a tiebreak. However, over the course of the whole match, Alcaraz’s game is too strong for Taylor Fritz. Unless Fritz hits perfect serves, Alcaraz will be able to get them back. He will mount the pressure on Fritz and eventually break him down. My best bet is for Alcaraz to win three sets to one, a prop that can be bet at odds of +225 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
