The Orioles and Mets have a doubleheader in Baltimore on Thursday. Below, I break down my prediction and pick for Game 2.
It will be a bullpen game for the Mets, while Tomoyuki Sugano will take the mound for the Orioles.
Orioles vs. Mets prediction, preview
It is a bullpen game for the Mets in the second game of the doubleheader. They used David Peterson in the first game and plan to bring back Kodai Senga from his IL stint on Friday night. That means they will be relying on the bullpen to carry them through this game. The Mets are yet to announce who will actually start the game, as it likely depends on who they use out of the bullpen in the first game. The last time they had a bullpen game, it was Justin Hagenman who started. He gave up four runs in 4.1 innings against the Yankees in that game. It could very well be Hagenman who gets the start again, or at least comes in for a long stretch after an inning or two from an opener. Hagenman was great in his two relief appearances prior to that start against the Yankees. In a situation with much less pressure in Baltimore, it could be a good situation for him to show his stuff.
Sugano is one of the oldest rookies that MLB has ever seen at 35 years old. After winning his third career Central League MVP in Japan in 2024, he finally decided to give Major League Baseball a shot after years of speculation. It’s been a bit of a struggle so far against MLB hitters. He has a 4.44 ERA and has had major issues giving up the long ball. Sugano has allowed 1.83 home runs per nine innings, the fourth-most among qualified starting pitchers. That is bad news against a Mets team that has hit the sixth-most home runs in baseball this year. Sugano is in bad form, giving up 13 runs across his past two starts. He will need to find something to avoid another disastrous start against New York.
Orioles vs. Mets pick, best bet
Stats and standings are as of the start of today’s doubleheader.
The Mets made a dramatic comeback in Tuesday night’s game, going on to win the game in extra innings. They are now just a half game behind the Phillies in the NL East and will want to keep this momentum rolling heading into the All-Star break. On Tuesday night, the “Fab Four” rose to the occasion, with Brandon Nimmo, Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso combining for six RBIs. Sugano could be in big trouble the way those bats are clicking at the top of the Mets’ lineup.
It has been a rollercoaster of a season for the Mets’ bullpen. They had by far the best bullpen ERA in baseball through the first few weeks of the season, but then everything went wrong. They started to lose starting pitchers to injuries and had to stretch their bullpen more. Then, some players who were great early in the season started to regress. They have since found a balance and have great bullpen arms like Reed Garrett, Ryne Stanek and Edwin Diaz available to them. As long as they don’t need to stretch their resources too much in the first game, the bullpen should be able to do a decent job in this matchup.
My best bet for this game is the over 10.5 runs. The Mets’ lineup should be able to tee off against Sugano and rack up a few runs. It’s hard to trust the Mets’ bullpen strength for this game without knowing what happened in the first game. If Hagenman does end up getting a bulk of the innings for the Mets, he is likely to give up a couple of runs, even in a decent performance. If the Mets don’t have some of their best arms available after game one, they could need to use some lesser names out of the pen and allow the Orioles to score a few runs of their own.
