The Braves and Athletics split the first two games of the series and will play the final game tonight, July 10.
Atlanta will start Spencer Strider, who is still working his way back to All-Star form after a second major elbow injury in 2024. On the other side, JP Sears will start for the Athletics.
The Braves are -187 favorites on the moneyline, while the Athletics are +152 underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 10.5 runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Thursday’s Braves vs. Athletics matchup.
Braves vs. Athletics prediction
The first two games of the series have been volatile. The Athletics won game one 10-1 before losing game two 9-2. Both games surpassed tonight’s over of 10.5 by a hair.
Strider will be on the mound for Atlanta after allowing three earned runs and seven hits across six innings against Baltimore. He hasn’t quite been his All-Star self yet, but he still owns a 3.93 ERA through 55 innings.
These numbers aren’t All-Star caliber, but they’re enough to be one of Atlanta’s best starters. Some of this has to do with Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach being on the 60-day IL, though.
Sears, on the other hand, has a 4.76 ERA through 92.2 innings. It’s a larger sample size, but he has a higher ERA. Although a near 5.00 ERA isn’t ideal, he’s been consistent for the Athletics in his 3.5 seasons. He’s held at least a 4.00 ERA in all 3.5 seasons, making his outings a bit predictable.
Even still, he has some flashes of excellence, and he’s on one of those stretches right now. Sears has allowed zero earned runs in his past two starts, which were against the Yankees and Giants. If he can replicate that against a weak Braves offense, it would give the Athletics a good chance to win the series.
Braves vs. Athletics pick, best bet
Despite over 10.5 clearing in both of the previous games, I’m not buying that it will happen again. The Athletics offense dominated game one, but it shut down completely in game two. The opposite happened for the Braves.
Neither offense is reliable as the Athletics rank 19th in runs per game, while the Braves are 23rd. With Strider and Sears on the mound, it should be a quieter game. The under will hit this time.