The NL West is not for the faint of heart; four different clubs find themselves in playoff contention. That includes the Padres and Diamondbacks, third and fourth in the division, respectively. San Diego enters tonight having dropped two of its last three games vs. Arizona. Can the Snakes earn a much-needed series win tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s battle between the Diamondbacks and Padres.
The Diamondbacks are favorites (-122) over the Padres, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s matchup.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction, preview
San Diego’s offense, on paper, is loaded with hitting talent. However, big names haven’t translated to big results. The Padres are only scoring 4.01 runs per game, the league’s seventh-lowest mark. That’s not to say there aren’t any standouts in this lineup. Even at age 32, Manny Machado continues to rake (132 wRC+). Fernando Tatis Jr., while not producing at a superstar-level, remains a force (126 wRC+). However, this is still a group that has underperformed as of late. Since June 20th, the Padres have scored 57 runs, the second-fewest in baseball during that time.
If San Diego can’t hit, Arizona has the exact opposite problem. The Diamondbacks are averaging the league’s fourth-most runs per game (5.11). However, an inconsistent group of pitchers has kept this team under .500 for most of the season. Granted, Corbin Burnes’ Tommy John surgery has been a major setback. However, several other arms have disappointed. That includes tonight’s starter, Eduardo Rodriguez. The southpaw owns an abysmal 5.78 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over 76.1 innings of work. However, a 4.29 FIP suggests that the veteran has been the victim of some bad luck. E-Rod dominated in June, holding opponents to two runs or less in each of his five outings. Unfortunately, he was lit up last week against the Royals (4.1 IP, 8 ER).
For the home team, it’ll be Randy Vasquez toeing the slab. While not a household name, the 26-year-old has been a solid contributor to this elite Padres pitching staff. In 18 starts, the right-hander has recorded a 3.79 ERA, in spite of his lackluster 4.88 K/9 ratio. Unlike Rodriguez, Vasquez has out-performed his peripheral statistics; he has an FIP of 5.31. The third-year pro’s weapon of choice is the cutter, thrown 28% of the time this season. Six different Diamondbacks hitters are batting at least .300 against that pitch. Three Arizona batters have reached .300 against the splitter as well, Vasquez’s favorite off-speed pitch.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres pick, best bet
Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML (-122)
At 46-47, Arizona hasn’t done much to earn the trust of bettors. However, the Padres have gone 17-19 since June 1st. The biggest difference in this matchup is at the plate, where the D-Backs have continued to rake. In comparison, the Padres have the league’s 11th-lowest OPS vs. left-handed pitching (.662). Keeping that in mind, E-Rod and the Snakes are poised for success tonight.
