Draft night brings on all the emotions as the latest class of rookies discovers their respective NBA pathways, but it is the second contract that truly separates the pack of players. The second deal cements one’s status at the NBA level and is the pathway to generational wealth in the way each of these players aspires to.
In the NBA, players are eligible for a rookie extension if they were a first-round pick and are entering the fourth year of their rookie contract. This deal can be signed from the end of their third season up until the day before their fourth season starts. For the 2022 draft class, this is the offseason in which several players have already cashed in on monstrous extensions.
This article looks at the financial outlook and status of a rookie extension for each first-round pick in order of draft selection.
Second contracts for the 2022 draft class
1. Paolo Banchero: The Orlando Magic and Paolo Banchero agreed to a monstrous five-year, $239 million contract extension which could reach as high as $287 million with performance indicators. This extension also includes a player option for the 2030-31 season, which is the first time this has been offered to a player on a rookie-scale extension since Luka Doncic in 2021. Banchero has developed into the clear face of the Magic, who are looking to leap into true playoff contention this season.
Orlando has climbed to the ninth-best odds to win the NBA Finals at +1900 on DraftKings Sportsbook. They hold the third-best odds of winning the Eastern Conference at +550.
2. Chet Holmgren: While he has not fully reached his individual peak just yet, Chet Holmgren has proven to be plenty impactful across his time with the Oklahoma City Thunder. On the heels of their first championship since moving to OKC, the Thunder rewarded Holmgren with a fully-guaranteed five-year extension worth up to $250 million. Still just 23 years old, the biggest concern with Holmgren is his health as he missed the entirety of his rookie season and played just 32 regular-season games this year. Still, his importance to the team is clear and he does deserve credit for playing all 82 games in his second season. Hopefully, this is still just the tip of the iceberg for the basketball player Holmgren will grow into.
The Thunder holds the best odds of winning next year’s championship at +260 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
3. Jabari Smith: The Houston Rockets have already locked up this young forward with a contract extension as he prepares for his fourth season. He will be financially committed to remain in Houston through the 2030-31 season following a new five-year, $122 million deal. The Rockets have done a nice job collecting young talent and have flipped the switch into win-now mode this season with Smith as a key part of this. There are still levels to his game he needs to unpack, but this was an extension that made sense for both sides.
The Rockets enter next season with the second-best odds of winning the championship at +700 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
4. Keegan Murray: The first player on this list without a contract extension yet is Keegan Murray. The Kings forward could theoretically be offered as much as a five-year, $246 million extension, but one would expect the numbers to end up falling notably short of this. Murray is a useful player coming off a season in which his scoring regressed, and he posted averages of 12.4 points and 6.7 rebounds while shooting 34.3% from beyond the three-point arc. Murray’s three-point percentage has also regressed in back-to-back years. Sacramento is in a strange place as a franchise and has made some head-scratching decisions this offseason. Murray has been vocal about his desire to remain with the Kings, but negotiations will be one to monitor for now.
The Kings currently hold +350 odds of making the playoffs on DraftKings Sportsbook.
5. Jaden Ivey: This young guard will be entering the final year of his rookie contract and has not agreed to a deal with the Pistons just yet. Detroit had a wildly successful season in which they essentially tripled their win total from the previous campaign and made the postseason for the first time since 2018-19. Ivey took an encouraging stride forward, averaging 17.6 points, 4.0 assists, and 4.1 rebounds while shooting a career-best 40.9% from beyond the three-point arc. Unfortunately, his season was ended prematurely due to a broken left fibula and he played just 30 games. His creation ability and ball-handling were notably missed in the postseason, so negotiations will be worth monitoring from here. There were some impressive flashes shown by Ivey last year, but his name has also been mentioned in trade rumors. Whether the Pistons elect to lock him up long-term or allow him to prove his worth and remain trade-eligible all season will be interesting.
Detroit enters next season with the sixth-best odds of winning the Eastern Conference at +1700 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
6. Bennedict Mathurin: Just a few weeks ago, the Pacers were on the brink of winning an NBA championship. Now, Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles tear and the loss of Myles Turner in free agency have changed the calculus for this franchise notably. Bennedict Mathurin has done his part to prove his importance, coming off a season in which he averaged 16.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game. The Arizona product plays with an edge that is necessary for this Pacers team, but he also does not have as high of a ceiling as some of the names mentioned above. Indiana has historically been a cost-conscious team and they find themselves in an interesting spot with Haliburton potentially missing all of next season. Keep an eye on negotiations with Mathurin moving forward.
The Pacers hold the 18th-best odds of winning the NBA Finals next season at +11000 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
7. Shaedon Sharpe: Shaedon Sharpe entered the NBA as one of the biggest question marks in the draft. After three seasons, not all of these have been answered. He took a huge statistical leap forward last season, averaging 18.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, but still struggles as a shooter and connected on just 31.1% of his three-point attempts. Sharpe has a highlight reel that can rival some of the league’s best dunkers, but is still putting together all the pieces of his game. There has been enough on display that leads me to believe Portland will look to lock up the 22-year-old for the long term as they shift into more of a win-now focus. But he also has not been stable enough to be sure of this, and there have been no notable updates between the two sides to this point.
Portland holds +475 odds of making the playoffs on DraftKings Sportsbook.
8. Dyson Daniels: The extension outlook for Dyson Daniels changed in a major way when he was traded to the Atlanta Hawks after starting the first two seasons of his career with the Pelicans. Daniels broke out for a career year last season, averaging 14.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and an NBA-best 3.0 steals per night while earning Most Improved Player honors. The ‘Great Barrier Thief’ fits the exact identity of what Atlanta is trying to build. To this point, there have been no reports of negotiations, but few players helped their case more than Daniels last year. There are plenty of mouths to feed in Atlanta moving forward, so don’t be shocked if they wait a year to try to sort through what his true contract value is. However, plenty of NBA teams would be eager to get their hands on the game-changing defensive talent and Atlanta likely would not have made the trade to land him if they did not have a long-term vision for him to be a part of the franchise.
The Hawks are tied for the fifth-best odds of winning the Eastern Conference at +1100 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
9. Jeremy Sochan: It has been a fascinating three seasons for Jeremy Sochan and the Spurs. The Baylor product has been asked to play point guard for stretches and has an interesting blend of skills. Expectations have changed greatly from when Sochan first got to San Antonio with the arrival of Victor Wembanyama as the driving reason why. The Spurs are looking to shift into the contending category this season, and Sochan’s struggles as a shooter and interesting positional fit will create some questions about what his market will be and what type of value he brings. De’Aaron Fox is also extension-eligible for the Spurs, so there will be some difficult conversations this offseason.
Currently, San Antonio holds the ninth-best odds of winning the Western Conference at +3500 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
10. Johnny Davis: Unfortunately for Johnny Davis, don’t expect to see any Shams reports regarding his extension anytime soon. The Wisconsin product has never found his footing at the NBA level, averaging just 5.8 points per game as a rookie while shooting 38.6% from the floor and 24.3% on three-point attempts. He has spent a significant portion of his time in the G League since then and played just 242 total minutes for the Wizards last year. With an improved young core established, Washington will have plenty of interest in developing the rest of the roster. Davis will hopefully find his footing at another location.
11. Ousmane Dieng: If he were on another team, there likely would be a much clearer outlook for who Ousmane Dieng is as a basketball player. The Oklahoma City Thunder are loaded with young talent that has made it difficult for Dieng to carve out a niche for himself. His minutes per game decreased from 14.6 as a rookie to 11.1 in his second season, then just 10.9 per game last year. Oklahoma City has plenty of larger priorities and there does not seem to be a likely chance of Dieng being signed to an extension with the Thunder.
12. Jalen Williams: A guy who is higher on the list of priorities for the Thunder is Jalen Williams. The Santa Clara product has stepped up into the co-star role that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander needs. He battled through a wrist injury throughout the playoffs but still dropped 40 points in a Finals game and delivered for the team throughout. Williams also earned All-Star, All-NBA Third Team, and All-Defensive Second Team honors this season after averaging 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game in the regular season. The Thunder are sure to prioritize Williams next in negotiations with Holmgren and Gilgeous-Alexander already concluded. Williams is eligible for as much as a five-year, $246 million contract, and momentum seems to be building for him to get the entirety of this. Expect an extension update between Williams and the Thunder shortly.
13. Jalen Duren: With Jaden Ivey also under consideration for an extension, Jalen Duren is another player the Pistons will need to decide on. Duren has all the tools to be one of the best centers in the NBA but still needs to polish his skillset. Plus, there is a deep frontcourt in Detroit. The 6-foot-10 big man averaged 11.8 points and 10.3 rebounds while shooting a career-best 69.2% from the field this season. For the time being, there has been no momentum on an extension between Duren and Detroit.
14. Ochai Agbaji: Another former 2022 lottery pick to have switched teams already in his young NBA career is Ochai Agbaji. After starting his career with the Utah Jazz, Agbaji has spent the last two seasons with the Toronto Raptors. He is coming off his best season in the league thus far, producing 10.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.5 assists while connecting on 39.9% of his three-point attempts. Toronto has a complicated outlook with a much more expensive overall roster than you would expect, and they just moved on from former general manager Masai Ujiri. Jakob Poeltl has already agreed to a contract extension while RJ Barrett is also extension-eligible. Agbaji did plenty to cement his NBA future with his performance last year, but factors beyond his control may limit his outlook for signing an extension this summer.
Non-Lottery Extension Outlooks:
Looking beyond the lottery picks, not a single late first-round pick has signed their rookie extension just yet. This list includes:
- 15: Mark Williams
- 16: AJ Griffin
- 17: Tari Eason
- 18: Dalen Terry
- 19: Jake LaRavia
- 20: Malaki Branham
- 21: Christian Braun
- 22: Walker Kessler
- 23: David Roddy
- 24: MarJon Beauchamp
- 25: Blake Wesley
- 26: Wendell Moore Jr.
- 27: Nikola Jovic
- 28: Patrick Baldwin Jr.
- 29: TyTy Washington Jr.
- 30: Peyton Watson
Looking at the list of non-lottery picks, Tari Eason, Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, and Walker Kessler are the only players to truly keep an eye on in extension talks. It also should be noted that only six of these players are still on the team with which they started their NBA career. Many have lost the possibility of the rookie extension due to teams declining their options or moving on already. Several of these players have seen much more consistent opportunities at the G League level, while AJ Griffin has walked away from basketball entirely.
If there are no more extension talks from players in the 2022 NBA draft class, it is not time to panic. It has been a strange offseason in which the new CBA is being felt in its full effect, and just about every team in the league has been limited in their cap space. The final two years of rookie contracts are typically team options, and organizations are also in a position to keep these players in the restricted free agent market by extending a qualifying offer. This allows teams to match offers sent for specific players and for players to get the market value they desire by another team setting what they would be willing to pay.
Expect more news to be coming for a few key players cashing in on their rookie extension, but don’t take it as the end of the world if a team and player do not agree to an extended deal heading into their final season under contract.
