When this series started on Monday, it seemed like two of the American League’s best teams squaring off in what could be a potential playoff preview. After a pair of Tigers’ wins? It’s starting to have a little bit of a different vibe.
Detroit has the most victories of any team in MLB and, with a stunning 14-game lead in the AL Central, it’s pretty obvious that the club will coast to a division win in 2025. Things are not so cut and dry in Tampa. The Rays were once the hottest team in baseball, yet they’ve now dropped eight of their past 11 contests and sit well behind the upstart Blue Jays in the AL East.
Can Tampa salvage this series with a Wednesday afternoon win? Let’s preview this matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Tigers prediction, preview
In his first start with the Tigers in almost seven weeks, Reese Olson pretty much picked up right where he left off. While the right-hander did surrender six hits and was limited to just 89 pitches and 4.1 innings, Olson allowed only a single earned run last Friday against the Guardians. That means, in his past seven starts at the MLB level, Olson’s maintained a 1.66 ERA with a 2.79 FIP. Seems pretty good! The Rays do own the league’s third-highest wRC+ across the past 30 days (121), so it wouldn’t be a stretch to think that Tampa can scratch out a couple runs off Olson this afternoon. However, keep in mind that the Rays possess a modest 96 wRC+ away from George M. Steinbrenner Field in 2025. They’ve been helped by the minor league ball park a great deal.
Then there’s the ticking time-bomb that is Zack Littell. How does this man still have a 3.50 ERA? On the surface, you might actually believe Littell is having a solid season for Tampa, but goodness do his advanced numbers paint a bleak picture. Not only does Littell possess the 10th-lowest qualified BABIP of any starter (.248), but he pairs that with MLB’s highest qualified strand rate (89.5%). That would be a big enough red flag on its own, yet it’s even more worrisome when you consider that Littell comes into Wednesday having conceded the most opponent home runs in baseball (24). How does the ball leave the park that often, yet Littell can still strand so many baserunners? Well, 20 of the long balls he’s given up have come with no one on base. The luck is almost inconceivable.
The Tigers lead the AL in home runs (45) and ISO (.224) over the last 30 days. I’m very confident that this is the type of lineup that can begin the much-needed regression for Littell’s wonky 2025 campaign. I’m more than expecting Detroit to finish off this sweep, in a contest where first pitch was moved back a few hours to avoid some early afternoon rain in Michigan.
Rays vs. Tigers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Tigers -1.5 (+141)
No pitcher has given up more home runs than Zack Littell. The Tigers lead MLB in ISO over the last 30 days.
Strong Lean: Riley Greene 1+ Home Run (+350)
Greene sports a .313 ISO and a .410 wOBA against RHPs in 2025.
