Despite being a small-market franchise, the Portland Trail Blazers certainly have a flair for the dramatic. Over the last couple of off-seasons, they’ve been involved in marquee move after marquee move, sending Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks in 2023 and dealing for Jrue Holiday earlier this summer. They also surprisingly waived center Deandre Ayton, who went on to sign with the Los Angeles Lakers.
These moves haven’t yet made the Trail Blazers competitive; despite some intriguing young pieces, they’re probably still a year away from that. DraftKings Sportsbook has set their win total to 33.5, the third-lowest in the West.
If you’re interested in seeing any of the other NBA teams’ projected win totals, check out DKN‘s master list of the full 2025-2026 NBA projected win totals.
Portland Trail Blazers 2025-2026 projected win total
Analysis
Portland was pretty good in the second half of 2023, winning 23 of its final 41 games and posting the league’s 10th-best net rating over that span. The Trail Blazers’ improvement was driven especially by their defense, which posted the third-best defensive rating in the second half of the season after being its third-worst in the first half. Scoot Henderson made some small strides, as his effective field goal percentage jumped from 49.0% in the first half of the season to 50.9% in the second half. After the All-Star break, Deni Avdija — acquired for Malcolm Brogdon and two first-round picks in the offseason — averaged 23.3 points, 9.7 boards, and 5.3 assists per game on 51-42-78 splits and should be even better in his age-25 season. Toumani Camara finished ninth in Defensive Player of the Year voting and also made 37.5% of his triples.
Portland is still one of the younger teams in the league despite rostering some veterans like Holiday (35) and Jerami Grant (31). The majority of its core is made up of players who are 25 or younger — Camara (25), Avdija (24), Shaedon Sharpe (22), Henderson (21), and Donovan Clingan (21) — and should have room to grow. Clingan, a two-time national champion with Connecticut in college, is expected to be the long-term solution at center after leading the league in blocks per 36 minutes and per 100 possessions (yes, ahead of Victor Wembanyama), and releasing Ayton opens up playing time for him. The Trail Blazers also made the most shocking move of the NBA Draft, using the 16th overall selection on Yang Hansen, a highly-skilled Chinese big with mobility questions who turned 20 the day after the draft.
Sharpe, as many young lead-option guards are, was fairly inefficient last season, but averaging 18.5 points per game in the NBA is never easy, and he scored 30 or more points in three of his final five games of the season. The fit between Sharpe and Anfernee Simons, another score-first, defense-last guard, was clunky, especially with Henderson — who also fits that mold — coming off the bench. It should be better between Sharpe and Holiday, given that Holiday is a low-usage, defensive-oriented guard who has won two championships and made two All-Star appearances. He’ll be a valuable veteran mentor, although Portland could look to trade him to a contender at the deadline, perhaps in tandem with Grant.
Portland Trail Blazers projected win total: Best bets, predictions
Portland Trail Blazers Over 33.5 (-120)
I don’t think the Trail Blazers stand a real chance at making a playoff push in an exceptionally-loaded Western Conference, but they’re going in the right direction. Holiday might be best-served as a ceiling-raiser on a championship contender, but he provides a huge boost on the court and in the locker room and plays winning basketball. Avdija is a deadeye shooter with long limbs and decent perimeter defense, and Camara is a lockdown defender with long limbs and a respectable jump shot. Clingan was worth .144 win shares per 48 minutes last season, which would’ve been the 35th-best in basketball if he’d played enough minutes to qualify. If last season’s Portland team could finish 36-46, so can this one.
