Everything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Philadelphia 76ers last season. After celebrating the signing of Paul George on a max contract in free agency, the nine-time All-Star was limited to 41 games. The trio of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and George played just 15 games together in which they went 7-8.
Philadelphia added V.J. Edgecombe with the third pick in the NBA Draft, but is mostly running it back with the same core. It should be noted that Jared McCain had jumped out to a clear lead in the Rookie of the Year race before a meniscus injury stole his season after just 23 games. Embiid also played the fewest games of his career, suiting up for just 19, and did not look like his MVP self when he was on the floor. All these variables and injury concerns have made this roster increasingly difficult to project moving forward. Looking at DraftKings Sportsbook, the Sixers hold the fourth-best odds of winning the Eastern Conference at +1000 and hold a win total of 43.5.
If you’re interested in seeing any of the other NBA teams’ projected win totals, check out DKN‘s master list of the full 2025-2026 NBA projected win totals.
Philadelphia 76ers 2025-2026 projected win total
Analysis
Few players in the NBA have impacted their team’s outlook for winning the way Joel Embiid has. Across the 452 regular-season games Embiid has played, he has led the Sixers to a 287-146 record, winning 66.3% of games. In the games he has not played across this time, the Sixers have gone 104-163 and won just 39.0% of the time. Generally, it has been true that when Embiid is on the floor, the Sixers have a chance to win on any given night regardless of who he shares the court with.
Most concerning from the Sixers’ perspective is that this was not the case last year. Embiid was unable to assert himself on the defensive end and elevate teammates in the way that has been seen in past years. This is especially frustrating with last year likely being the best roster Embiid had ever been surrounded by. The former MVP underwent another knee procedure this offseason with the hopes that this can get him back to looking like himself. It was less than two years ago that Embiid was on the pathway to winning his second consecutive MVP and was a consensus top-three player in basketball, but the track record for big men with knee problems over the age of 30 is not great. In some ways, this over/under is a bet on whether or not Embiid will be healthy at a regular rate.
Looking outside of the big man, there is still some reason for optimism with this Sixers team. Philadelphia has quietly started its youth movement led by Maxey and McCain. The expectation is for Quentin Grimes to return as he waits out the restricted free agency market, and Edgecombe has already made his presence felt in the NBA Summer League. Yes, the Sixers may never get the full max contract version of Paul George they hoped for as his shooting splits and scoring outputs were the lowest in over a decade last year. To be fair to George, he battled a variety of injuries and even was taking injections to stay on the floor. One has to imagine there is some sort of bounce-back season, even if it is not to the level that Sixers fans would prefer.
Philadelphia 76ers projected win total: Best bets, predictions
Philadelphia 76ers Over 43.5 Wins (+100)
The Sixers won just 24 games last year with the season going entirely off the rails. But in the seasons before this, they produced win totals of 47, 54, 51, 49, 43, 51, and 52 dating back to the 2017-18 season. The only season in which they did not clear the 43.5 win total was in 2019-20, which was shortened due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
There is no way around acknowledging that Embiid is a complete wild card in this outlook. Still, the Eastern Conference is wide open and someone has to win some games. Tyrese Maxey has continued his progression, including taking a huge defensive leap last season, and McCain looked to be a game-changing offensive talent during his brief rookie sample. There are more ways the Sixers can win games this season than has been the case in past years.
Expect Philadelphia to let the young guys run this season and not lean entirely on Embiid to carry them to the same extent as in past years. There will be some significant pressure on each member of the Sixers organization following last year’s disaster. From Nick Nurse to every player on the roster, expect a spirited effort and for the team to respond with at least 44 wins this year, especially with the weak Eastern Conference in mind.
