Nico Harrison’s vision is starting to crystallize. Gone is Luka Dončić. In are Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell, and Cooper Flagg. In theory, the defense and length on the Dallas Mavericks’ roster is staggering.
But the Western Conference is stacked; last season, the Mavericks finished 10th in the Western Conference before winning the 9-10 Play-In Tournament game. Despite all the talent on its roster, Dallas has an over-under of just 39.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, the 10th-highest in the West.
If you’re interested in seeing any of the other NBA teams’ projected win totals, check out DKN‘s master list of the full 2025-2026 NBA projected win totals.
Dallas Mavericks 2025-2026 projected win total
Analysis
The Dončić trade didn’t bear fruit quickly for the Mavericks. Davis made his Dallas debut on February 8 and suffered an adductor strain that held him out until March 24. Kyrie Irving tore his ACL. Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II both missed significant time with serious leg injuries. The Mavericks got a huge gift by landing the first overall pick, which they used to select Flagg, a generational prospect. The six-foot-nine forward averaged 19.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 2.8 combined blocks/steals per game in his lone season at Duke on 48-39-84 shooting splits, winning just about every award available to him.
He joins a roster more ready to win than most first overall picks, so his situation isn’t necessarily akin to that of Victor Wembanyama, whose San Antonio Spurs won just 22 games in 2023-24 despite Wemby’s historic rookie season. As always, health will be the X-factor: over his last six seasons, Davis has played more than 65 games just once. Klay Thompson has been relatively healthy since returning from back-to-back debilitating leg injuries in 2021-22, but his mobility and defense have declined and he’ll turn 36 next February. Russell played just 58 games last season, leaving the offense in the hands of Jaden Hardy and Dante Exum in the likelihood that he misses time.
Despite Davis’ immense and undeniable talent — between his stints in Dallas and Los Angeles, he averaged 24.7 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game last season while playing elite post defense — the injury questions will still dog him. I’m also concerned about the Mavericks’ guard depth, especially if Russell gets injured, given that they’re paying Irving $36.7 million to miss most, if not all, of the season while recovering from his ACL injury. Russell is hardly a pass-first point guard, and Dallas ranked just 22nd in assists per game last season despite having Dončić on the roster for 22 games. It’ll pair a dominant post defense with some questions marks on the perimeter, especially as Thompson ages.
Dallas Mavericks projected win total: Best bets, predictions
Dallas Mavericks Under 39.5 (-120)
40 wins seems like a pretty low mark for a team that won 39 last season despite being so decimated by injuries that forfeit became a real possibility, but this team has too many question marks. Davis should still be a top-15 player and should be good to play between 50 and 60 games, the center duo of Lively and Gafford both provide excellent rim protection, and Flagg seems NBA-ready. However, Russell isn’t an ideal solution at point guard; he had a negative-0.4 box plus-minus figure last season. Thompson is useless on defense at this stage in his career and made just 35.8% of his triples after Irving’s injury. The Mavericks’ division, which features the much-improved Houston Rockets and Spurs as well as the solid (if healthy) Memphis Grizzlies, is strong, as is their NBA Cup group.
