After four games in the afternoon, Major League Baseball has 11 games under the lights in what should be an exciting night of action. One fun way to jump into the night is to find some home run props to play on DraftKings Sportsbook. While Coors Field isn’t on the board, some homer-friendly parks like Sutter Health Park, Fenway Park, Great American Ball Park and Daikin Park are in play. After looking at the home run props on the board for Wednesday, my favorite three home run props are from Trevor Story, Agustin Ramirez, and Nick Kurtz.
Just a quick reminder before we dive into my specific picks for the night—all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in well under half of their games, home run props are never “safe” picks, even if every single factor seems to indicate a long ball is about to be launched. Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on.
What makes home run props exciting is that the long odds mean big returns when they do hit. It also makes sense to use these home run props with other picks in SGPs or parlay plays. I also like to play them at small money in round robins, boosting their upside even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters goes yard—get those QTs and RTs ready on X!
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Monday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Trevor Story to record 1+ home runs (+400)
The Red Sox are home in a smash spot at Fenway Park against Antonio Senzatela. They are looking to close out a three-game sweep of the Rockies. Former Rockie Trevor Story turned Tuesday night’s game into a rout with this blast:
That home run was Story’s sixth long ball in his last 18 games, and he is hitting .338 with a .427 wOBA and a 49.1% hard-hit rate over that span.
Story has hit 11 of his 15 homers this season against right-handed pitchers, and Senzatela has given up nine of his 14 homers to right-handed hitters. Even though he pitches at Coors Field for his home games, he has a higher home run allowed rate on the road, where he has a 6.32 ERA and 6.27 FIP.
The Red Sox overall are in a great spot, and I also like Jarren Duran (+425) and Wilyer Abreau (+360) as home run props to consider and as top MLB DFS plays for the day. Story is the primary option I went with in these home run props, though, since Senztela’s main problem has been with against right-handed hitters.
Agustin Ramirez to record 1+ home runs (+370)
The Marlins are at Great American Ball Park, where the temps will be in the 80s with the wind slightly out to left. The Marlins will have a tough overall matchup against lefty Andrew Abbott, but Abbott has been a little homer-prone, giving up 10 homers in 15 starts, including six homers in his last six outings and seven in his eight home starts.
Abbott has given up eight of his 10 homers to right-handed hitters, who are hitting just .217 against him, but have still been able to hit homers off him.
Ramirez is the Marlins top righty power hitter, and he has feasted on the Reds this year:
He has 14 homers in his 66 games in the majors this year, with four coming off left-handed pitchers, against whom he has a .347 wOBA. He has also hit 10 of those 14 long balls on the road, where he has a .377 wOBA on the year.
Ramirez has a 48.8% hard-hit rate and 11.5% barrel rate on the seaosn, but he has been making even better contact lately with a 55.6% hard-hit rate and 18.5% barrel rate over his last 20 contests.
Even though Abbott may not give up a lot of runs, Ramirez has a good chance to deliver value at +370 in Wednesday’s home run props.
Nick Kurtz to record 1+ home runs (+290)
For the last of my home run props, let’s look at the late game and continue to target Nick Kurtz of the Athletics. I’ve had the slugging lefty first baseman as a regular in my home run props and DFS plays all year, and he keeps on mashing.
Kurtz has nine homers in his last 21 games with a .449 wOBA and a 20.4% barrel rate over that span. Of his 14 homers on the year, 10 have come at Sutter Health Park, where he has a .298 batting average and .436 wOBA.
Kurtz and the A’s had a five-homer party in their 10-1 win on Tuesday, and they’ll look to keep crushing against Bryce Elder and the Braves on Wednesday. Elder has given up 16 homers in 14 starts and nine homers in just 35 1/3 innings on the road. Even though righties have done most of the damage against Elder, Kurtz is hot enough and has mashed right-handed pitching enough to still pick him in tonight’s home run props even though not all the platoon splits point in his direction.
