In the MLB’s evening slate, the Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians square off for the third time in as many nights as this series down south concludes. It certainly hasn’t gone as expected for the Stros thus far as they dropped the first two games at home, but they look to rebound on Wednesday and get back in the win column with a much-needed victory.
Here’s an Astros vs. Guardians prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight.
Astros vs. Guardians prediction, preview
Houston was surging heading into this series with one of the MLB’s top offenses and a standout pitching staff despite dealing with plenty of injuries across the roster. Now, they’ve suffered back-to-back losses for the first time since June 10 and are showing some cracks in the foundation of what made them one of the MLB’s best teams over the last two months.
The Guardians are just 42-48 with an offense ranked bottom-five in each of the slash line stats as well as runs scored. Yet they’ve outscored the Astros 7-5 and 10-6 across the first two games of this series as the bats woke up at the right time and Houston’s arms faltered, which feels like a rarity these days. Last night’s outing ended with a 10th-inning grand slam by Angel Martinez to secure the win for Cleveland, a heartbreaking loss for the home crowd but a galvanizing moment for a visiting team in need of positive energy.
The Astros are operating with a shorthanded lineup as Jeremy Pena remains out with a fractured rib and journeymen Cooper Hummel and Taylor Trammell man the DH spot and left field. Of course, Yordan Alvarez still hasn’t appeared in a game since May 2, so Houston has missed their top slugger almost all season. The team still hits for the MLB’s top average and eighth-best OPS with the 14th-most runs on the year, so even with a rotating cast of batters, their offense keeps producing. The question is instead whether their pitchers can tighten things up tonight and send the Guardians’ offense back to their regular caliber of performance.
Astros vs. Guardians pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as a -158 Moneyline favorite at home tonight. The Guardians are a +129 underdog on the Moneyline with the run total set at just 7.5.
Houston starts Brandon Walter, a 28-year-old righty with just 15 career appearances to his name. Across six games this season he tallies a 4.15 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 33 strikeouts in 34.2 innings. As for Cleveland, they deploy righty Slade Cecconi. In 48.0 innings this season, he’s racked up a 3.56 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with 47 punchouts.
This pick may be simple, but let me talk you through it. Whether you look at the last week, two weeks or month, the Astros’ offense has consistently ranked top-five in scoring over whatever sample you choose from those options. Even with some questionable talent in their starting nine, they’ve still sent runs across the plate in this series, too. While the Guardians have seen seen some scoring success over the last couple of games, they’re bound to regress to the mean at some point. The same can be said about Houston’s pitching staff, which ranked top-three in ERA before this series and still sits sixth on the year overall.
Cleveland may have won this series, but I find it very difficult to predict a sweep tonight. While Walter may not be an awe-inspiring pitcher, I think he and the bullpen will do enough to limit their opponent and allow Houston -1.5 to cash at +146 odds.
Best bet: HOU Astros -1.5 (+146)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
