Happy hump day, everyone!
You know what else is a hump? The pitcher’s mound that 22 talented starters will crest as part of tonight’s featured 11-game DFS slate on DraftKings. Here are my five favorite options for you to consider as you build your lineups.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st].
1. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds ($9,500)
Yesterday, Abbott was named an All-Star for the first time in his career when Los Angeles Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto opted to pitch in a regular-season matchup two days before the showcase, deeming him unable to pitch in the All-Star game. The 26-year-old southpaw deserves it: he has a 2.15 ERA this season and is one of just six NL pitchers to record a complete-game shutout, which he did on June 10 against the Cleveland Guardians in a 36.85-FPT effort. He’s coming off of a rough start — the Philadelphia Phillies got to him for four runs in just 3.1 innings (-1.9 FPTS) on July 4 — but that shouldn’t take anything away from Abbott’s shine.
I like him to bounce back against a Miami Marlins team that has been an average unit in most offensive categories: 12th-to-last in runs, 15th-to-last in OPS, and a 42-48 record. In particular, Abbott has excelled at limiting hard contact, which is where Miami struggles too: it has the 11th-lowest hard-hit percentage, the 11th-lowest average exit velocity, and it’s the third-most prone to weak contact and the sixth-most prone to tops. That should benefit Cincinnati, which has the league’s sixth-best defense. The Marlins are also starting Sandy Alcantara ($6,900) and his 7.01 ERA, so I like Abbott to pick up a win.
2. Brandon Walter, Houston Astros ($8,700)
Walter’s run totals in his six starts this season: zero, two, one, seven, one, and five. Follow that pattern, and it seems like he’s due to give up one or fewer runs, right? Though patterns can’t be extrapolated that easily in such a small sample size — especially in a game as volatile and random as baseball — I’m going to back it to continue for at least one more game. In his two home starts, he’s averaged 24.6 FPTS per game, giving up just two earned runs (both via the solo homer) in 12.2 innings. He was much better at home in 2023 too, with a 3.48 ERA at Daikin Park and an 8.53 mark everywhere else.
More importantly, the Cleveland Guardians’ offense has been icy for the last month-plus. Even though they’ve scored 17 runs over their last two games, the larger sample size is still pretty pitiful: a .613 OPS and an 11-22 record since June 1. I’m going to need to see more than two games before I start to believe that Cleveland’s offense is back. The Guardians have also had the league’s third-worst mark against lefties this season, mostly because leadoff man and All-Star reserve Steven Kwan ($4,300) has extreme platoon splits.
3. Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals ($10,000)
It’s hard to go wrong picking the most expensive pitcher on a slate, although I did yesterday by selecting Hunter Brown against the Guardians. Bubic has been stellar for Kansas City this season, with a 2.45 ERA and nine 20-plus-FPT performances. The 27-year-old typically goes deep into the game — he’s thrown more than 90 pitches in all but one of his starts this season — and since every out is worth 0.75 FPTS, that’s certainly not insignificant. Bubic might have thrown even more than 103 innings (the 20th-most in the American League) this season if he weren’t so good at inducing chases (97th percentile) and whiffs (80th).
I expect him to breeze through against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that has posted a league-low .611 OPS against southpaws this season and has scored just 12 runs in seven games so far in July. With that offensive ineptitude, it’s unsurprising that they’ve lost each of their last five games, and they only won on July 1 thanks to the existence of Paul Skenes, the best pitcher in baseball. Bubic has been slightly worse at home than on the road, but that’s overshadowed by the fact that the Pirates have had easily the least effective road offense in baseball.
4. Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs ($6,500)
I backed Horton in this exact spot — fourth — the last time he pitched; he delivered seven shutout innings (21.55 FPTS) and his DFS salary only rose by $300 afterwards. With such high upside at such a low price, there’s no reason not to continue backing him, given that he’s delivered four 15-plus-FPT performances over his last four games. To be fair, he’s been worse on the road, but that’s mostly because his one disastrous start — a four-inning, seven-run (negative-8.8-FPT) abomination — came at the Houston Astros’ Daikin Park, where plenty of quality pitchers have been shelled.
The Minnesota Twins have been cold as of late, losing 25 of their last 40 games, although that’s mostly due to a pitching staff that has had a 5.22 ERA across that span. But just as the pitching has heated up, the offense has slowed back down, with the ninth-worst OPS so far this month. Home Run Derby participant Byron Buxton ($6,300) is easily Minnesota’s most dangerous hitter but started off the month with a two-for-20 slump before solid performances in each of his last two games.
5. Lucas Giolito, Boston Red Sox ($8,500)
Through the start of June, Giolito had been one of the league’s worst pitchers after spending the entire 2024 season recovering from elbow surgery. On June 9, he had a 6.42 ERA. In the five starts since then, he has conceded two or fewer runs in every start, with a 0.83 ERA and 2.90 FIP across that span, averaging 25.5 FPTS per game. He’s cut down on his breaking stuff and leaned all-in on his fastball, throwing a four-seamer on more than half of his pitches in each of the five starts, and even his velocity has been higher as of late.
I back Giolito continue his strong form against the Rockies, who are still on pace to be the worst team in modern baseball history despite somewhat strong form as of late. Colorado did have one hot stretch between June 2 and 18 in which it went 8-7 with an .827 OPS, but since then, the Rockies have gone back to their rocky ways, with a 4-14 record and a .666 OPS. They’ve also had a putrid .607 OPS away from mile-high Coors Field this season, better than only Pittsburgh. Giolito hasn’t allowed a run at Fenway Park since June 4.
