In 2023-24, it was the Oklahoma City Thunder who jumped from 40 wins to 57. Last season, the Houston Rockets went from 41 wins to 52. Can the San Antonio Spurs improve from 34 wins to 44?
They’ll have to make that 10-win leap in order to hit their over, currently set to 43.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. In a testament to how stacked the West is, that’s just the eighth-highest total in the conference.
If you’re interested in seeing any of the other NBA teams’ projected win totals, check out DKN‘s master list of the full 2025-2026 NBA projected win totals.
San Antonio Spurs 2025-2026 projected win total
Analysis
2025-26 will be Year Three of the Victor Wembanyama Experience. The seven-foot-three French phenom has been a revelation in the first two seasons of his NBA career, averaging 22.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 3.7 blocks per game so far in his career. He finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting and was well on his way to claiming that award in 2024-25 before a blood clot in his right shoulder cut his tremendous season short at the All-Star break. Last season, San Antonio outscored opponents by 2.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor and got outscored by 6.7 without him. By box plus-minus, he was the fifth-best player in basketball in his age-21 season, and as long as he’s healthy, it’s hard not to imagine him being even better this season.
The Spurs made shrewd moves during the offseason to get better around Wembanyama without going all-in. Instead of including the second overall pick in a potential deal for Kevin Durant or Giannis Antetokounmpo, they held onto it and selected Dylan Harper, an ultra-talented former Rutgers guard. Wembanyama’s — and, later, De’Aaron Fox’s — absence helped Stephon Castle develop into the Rookie of the Year, as he averaged 19.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game after Fox’s season-ending finger surgery. They also picked up a very solid backup big in Luke Kornet, whose rim protection was nearly as good as Wembanyama’s in limited minutes.
San Antonio is still a little bit short in the wing department: Harrison Barnes has regressed defensively in his age-32 season, though he had the most efficient deep shooting season of his career, Jeremy Sochan’s jumper isn’t quite there yet, and Keldon Johnson took a step back in efficiency. Wembanyama, despite his ludicrous talent, isn’t a perfect player; he still takes some unnecessary threes and could improve as a post-up and paint threat. Plus, even before Wembanyama’s injury, the Spurs had just the league’s 19th-best defense and its 20th-best rebounding percentage; without him, they had the fourth-worst defense and third-worst rebounding percentage. He’ll almost certainly be healthier and maybe even better on defense and the boards in 2025-26, and Kornet will help, but did San Antonio add enough defensive pieces otherwise?
San Antonio Spurs projected win total: Best bets, predictions
San Antonio Spurs Over 43.5 (-110)
The Spurs were 21-25 in the games in which Wembanyama appeared — a 37-win pace. Most of those games came without Fox, without an improved Castle, without Harper, and without Kornet. It’s not hard to see Wembanyama leading his team to seven additional wins in 2025-26, as long as he remains healthy most of the season. Sure, the West has improved, but that’s in large part because San Antonio got so much better. In 2024-25, eight West teams won more than 44 games, and it would hardly be a surprise for the Spurs to be one of the conference’s best eight teams. There will be at least two horrible teams — the Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz — which should mean at least five wins for San Antonio.
