If there was an award for the most surprising move of the 2025 offseason, it’d have to go to the Milwaukee Bucks, who signed former Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner to a four-year deal and waived Damian Lillard, stretching the remaining $112.6 million of his contract over five years instead of two. Lillard is the first player in NBA history ever to be waived following a season in which he made an All-Star team.
The moves were seemingly made in an attempt to appease Giannis Antetokounmpo by putting a contender around him in the wide-open Eastern Conference, but they have a projected win total of just 45.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, tied for the fifth-highest in the East.
If you’re interested in seeing any of the other NBA teams’ projected win totals, check out DKN‘s master list of the full 2025-2026 NBA projected win totals.
Milwaukee Bucks 2025-2026 projected win total
Analysis
So far, if the goal has been to keep Antetokounmpo around, it’s been successful — despite reporting that he was displeased with the Bucks’ decision to release Lillard, he has not requested a trade and seems likely to start the season in green and cream. As long as Antetokounmpo is on the roster, Milwaukee will win games; the 30-year-old has been named to the All-NBA First Team in seven consecutive seasons, and in 2024-25, he was worth 11.5 win shares on his own, theoretically turning a 37-45 roster into a 48-34 one. If the Bucks could go 48-34 last season with Lillard and Brook Lopez, a 46-36 campaign with Turner but no Lillard is feasible.
Milwaukee is in desperate need of guard play and should scour the buyout and trade markets for a possible solution, as their current guard rotation consists of Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Trent Jr., Ryan Rollins, and AJ Green: all fine players, but none remotely the caliber of Lillard or Jrue Holiday, with whom the Bucks won a championship in 2021. But with $124.3 million committed to four players — $54.1 million to Antetokounmpo, $25.3 million to Turner, $22.4 million to Kyle Kuzma, and $22.5 million to keep Lillard off the roster — and just one tradable first-round pick, Milwaukee’s options are bleak. Porter, Trent, Rollins, and Green were all worth a negative box plus-minus last season, but at least they’re on reasonable contracts. Kuzma was the second-worst qualified player in the league.
It’ll probably be the weakest roster that Antetokounmpo has played with since entering his prime, and his usage rate is sure to be high next season. That might not be a terrible thing — in the 16 games last season in which he recorded a usage rate north of 40%, the Bucks went 10-6. After Lillard’s regular season ended with a blood clot in his calf, Antetokounmpo averaged 31.2 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 8.6 assists per game as Milwaukee went 8-3. He then averaged 33.0 points, 15.4 boards, and 6.6 assists per game in the Bucks’ first-round loss to Indiana. In that span, he assisted Lopez 1.8 times per game, so maybe he can work out some chemistry with Turner, who was assisted on 447 of his 506 made field goals during the 2024-25 season.
Milwaukee Bucks projected win total: Best bets, predictions
Milwaukee Bucks Under 45.5 (-110)
While the conference isn’t daunting — both Haliburton and the Boston Celtics’ Jayson Tatum, in addition to Lillard, are likely to miss the entire season with torn Achilles tendons — this Milwaukee team simply isn’t very good beyond Antetokounmpo. Kuzma was downright unplayable in the postseason, and Turner had a miserable NBA Finals and left Game 7 for good with seven minutes, 41 seconds left. He isn’t a huge rebounding upgrade over Lopez, and he only made significant offensive strides once Haliburton arrived at the 2022 trade deadline. His rim protection is a slight upgrade, but it won’t be enough to help this fundamentally flawed team to the playoffs.
