The good news about the NBA season ending is that you don’t have to wait long for the Summer League. Only a month after the conclusion of the NBA Finals, we’re back in action. Tuesday presents a great four-game slate, including a showdown between the Golden State Warriors and the Miami Heat.
DraftKings Sportsbook is listing the Miami Heat as one-point favorites and -115 on the moneyline ahead of the Summer League opener. The Golden State Warriors are listed at -105 odds on the moneyline, with the game total set at 175.5. Let’s get into a breakdown of the two Summer League squads, players to watch, and a pick for the contest.
Roster Breakdown:
Summer League roster construction is a fascinating thing. If you’re not familiar, here’s the basic breakdown. All healthy rookies are expected to participate. Top picks like Cooper Flagg or Dylan Harper, who have less to prove, typically play a game or two. From there, the playing time for high picks depends on the team. It’s more for second-round or undrafted free-agent rookies to get some serious run and show what they can do.
This also applies to second-year players. Many teams choose to send sophomores who still have something to prove. You’ll also see players with a few years of experience who have fallen out of the league get Summer League tryouts with teams; it’s an excellent chance for them to prove that they still belong. You’ll find players of all types on these Warriors and Heat rosters.
Golden State is headlined by its two second-round picks: former Florida Gators guard Will Richard and Australian forward Alex Toohey. Both were drafted to be role players, with NBA-ready size and translatable skill sets. Playing in Summer League is a chance to show the Warriors that their NBA minutes should come sooner rather than later.
The Warriors and GM Mike Dunleavy also signed some intriguing undrafted free agents. Former Houston wing LJ Cryer joins after a prolific career of winning and hitting threes. Coleman Hawkins brings experience and versatility out of the forward spot. Chance McMillian handled the ball well at Texas Tech and shot the lights out. All three will look to secure a spot with the Santa Cruz Warriors, the Dubs’ G-League squad.
You’ll also see various players with multiple years of experience in the Summer League. Taran Armstrong, Marques Bolden, Jackson Rowe, Isaiah Mobley, and a few others have been here before. They’re looking to hold on to their chance at cracking into the NBA.
In terms of first-round picks, Miami holds all the cards here. Kel’el Ware, the 15th pick in the 2024 draft, impressed early and often with the Heat last season. He’s already dominating early in the Summer League and could be one of the best players on the floor. The highlights seem to follow him wherever he goes.
They also have the 20th pick in this year’s draft, Kasparas Jakučionis; ironically, a draft pick that came from the Warriors in the Jimmy Butler trade. It’s a significant Summer League for Jakučionis after he fell in the draft due to concerns over his athleticism and scoring efficiency. Those concerns have not been alleviated in the first two games; Kasparas is 1-for-10 from the field with eight turnovers to only three assists. He’ll need to pick it up in order to crack their deepening wing rotation, one that just added Norman Powell for a song.
Miami also has a pair of wings from the 2024 Draft looking to take a bigger step. Both Pelle Larsson and Keshad Johnson got some run with the team in their rookie years. The 24-year-olds have experience and skill, and will need to put on a good showing to prove they’re ahead of the young competition. Being a wing on the Erik Spoelstra’s Miami Heat tends to be lucrative for your career; the motivation is plain to see.
Don’t count out their undrafted players. The Heat signed a trio of experienced college bigs: Michigan’s Vladislav Goldin, Memphis’ Dain Dainja, and Indiana’s Oumar Ballo. I’m keeping a close eye on Goldin and Ballo; the former should have been drafted, and the latter was a double-double machine. The Heat tend to work wonders with bigs that are deemed low-skill and limited in terms of movement.
Now that we know the major players, let’s examine how this contest should unfold.
Warriors vs. Heat Pick:
The Warriors do have a strong amount of G-League experience on this roster. There’s good balance positionally and a solid mix of young talent. And while experience does go a long way in this tournament, talent takes you even further.
Kel’el Ware is going to be one of the best players in this Summer League. This Warriors roster lacks the size and athleticism to counter his vertical dominance. And I don’t expect Kasparas Jakučionis’ struggles to continue forever. Golden State has some good wing defenders in this squad, but he’s got a lot of handle and size that presents issues.
I’m backing the Miami Heat spread at -1. They’re the superior Summer League team and will roll to a 2-1 record.
