This is the opener of a three-game series in Baltimore between the Orioles and visiting New York Mets.
Clay Holmes is scheduled to pitch for New York while Brandon Young should get the nod for Baltimore.
Mets at Orioles prediction, preview
Clay Holmes used to average over 97 mph on the fastball, but that was mostly in a relief role. He’s now averaging 93.5 mph in 17 starts this season. The ERA is 2.99 over 93.1 innings, but the 4.37 FIP tells more of the story. The BABIP is only .254 while the strand rate is an elevated 83.2%. The strikeout rate is only 19.5% while the walk rate is 10%.
Holmes has had more difficulty with lefties, as the K-BB% is only 3.6% while the FIP is 5.19. Holmes has also been much better on the road, allowing fewer home runs, posting a higher K-BB% and lower FIP than at home.
Holmes has allowed over three earned runs only twice, and both of those ended with four earned runs. Holmes has failed to pitch at least five innings only three times, with two of those the first two starts of the season. This will be the first time facing Baltimore this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Orioles have struck out at the fourth-highest rate while having the sixth-best ISO. The wOBA is 13th-best in MLB.
Brandon Young is 26 years old and is making his first MLB appearance this season. In 16.2 innings, the control has been wild, as he’s walked 11 batters. The ERA is 7.02, but he’s been a bit unlucky with a .392 BABIP and 66.2% strand rate. The FIP is at 4.83. Young averages 93.4 mph on the fastball. The hard hit rate is 45.3%. Interestingly, four of the five pitches thrown have a negative run value but that 13.9% walk rate is tough to overcome.
The sample size is too small to consider splits but Young has had more difficulties with lefties while home has not been friendly.
In four starts, Young has pitched only four innings in each. He’s allowed at least three earned runs in every contest. This will be the first time seeing the Mets this season.
The Mets have struck out at the 22nd-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being fifth in ISO. The wOBA is fifth-best.
As for bullpens, New York has the seventh-lowest FIP while Baltimore has the 26th-lowest.
Mets at Orioles, Best Bet
I like the Mets offense to continue giving Young a rough time in the majors. Holmes is much better on the road, but Baltimore isn’t the friendliest of confines, so the Orioles should score some runs, but not enough.
