The Oklahoma City Thunder managed to put the cherry on top of one of the most successful organization rebuilds by getting over the championship hump last season. They won a league-best 68 games in the regular season, winning the Western Conference by 16 games, and carried this momentum into the postseason to eventually defeat the Indiana Pacers in seven games to be crowned champs.
But the NBA waits for no one, and the race to find every single edge ahead of next season is already underway. Oklahoma City is uniquely positioned to continue competing for the long-term future, with its core still very young and nearly all of its key players under contract. It is more difficult than ever before to keep together high-level teams with the effects of the salary cap and CBA being felt league-wide. But the Thunder are rightfully considered the gold standard of the NBA, entering next season as the title favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook and with the highest win total at 62.5 for the season.
If you’re interested in seeing any of the other NBA teams’ projected win totals, check out DKN‘s master list of the full 2025-2026 NBA projected win totals.
Oklahoma City Thunder 2025-2026 projected win total
Analysis
Unlike most of the NBA, the focus of the Thunder’s offseason was not on improving their roster to the highest degree possible. But rather, the goal was to find ways to keep this core together as long as possible and continue competing for championships. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was signed to his historic contract extension, and nearly every other key contributor was already under contract.
The most notable additions have come through the draft process. Last year’s 12th overall pick Nikola Topic spent his entire rookie season rehabbing from his ACL Tear and will get his first action on the court. Topic had plenty of buzz in the predraft process and likely would have been selected higher if it had not been for the injury. In addition, Oklahoma City selected Georgetown’s Thomas Sorber with the 15th overall pick and Northwestern’s Brooks Barnhizer with the 44th overall pick. All three of these young talents have already shown some impressive flashes in the summer league, with still plenty more time to show what they can do and take steps in their development.
The largest reason for belief in this Thunder team next year is all the internal growth still set to take place by the players on this Oklahoma City Thunder roster. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off one of the best individual seasons in NBA history, but is set to turn 27 next week and is just entering his athletic prime. Jalen Williams is only 24 years old and well ahead of his expected developmental arc, while Chet Holmgren is 23 with layers to his game that he has not been fully able to put on display. Plenty of other young talent will be on the pathway to getting better on the roster as well, but this is already one of the best trios in the NBA, and they are just scratching the surface of what they will be together and as individual talents.
Oklahoma City Thunder projected win total: Best bets, predictions
Oklahoma City Over 62.5 Wins (-110)
This is a sky-high win total, but for good reason. The Thunder are coming off 68 wins last year, which tied for the sixth-best record in NBA history. A championship hangover is inevitable to some degree, but this Thunder team remains young and extremely hungry. The messaging has been clear from an organizational standpoint that the goal was not to win one championship, but to win multiple.
The Western Conference got deeper, and the pathway is not as clear as it was last year. But there are still plenty of teams with much milder aspirations that Oklahoma City will beat up on. They went a ridiculous 35-6 at home last season and were 29-1 when facing teams from the Eastern Conference.
Injury issues are always a concern, but the Thunder managed to survive notable missed time from both Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein last year. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the reigning MVP for a reason, and losing him for any extended period would be a significant hit. But the Thunder are better equipped to sustain a superstar absence than most teams and have several players who are capable of stepping up on any given night.
62.5 is a high win total, but at least one team has surpassed this number of wins in three of the past four years in the NBA and eight of the last 12. They hold a five-game cushion for regression in the W/L category, and this is enough to make me feel comfortable. Expect them to tally the most wins in the NBA again this season and eclipse 62.5 for the second consecutive season.
