Five months after the most shocking trade in NBA history, the Los Angeles Lakers still seemingly lack a direction. As the Minnesota Timberwolves proved with a first-round throttling, the roster isn’t championship-ready, and the rest of the West got better.
That said, Los Angeles still rosters Luka Dončić and LeBron James, so the prognosis is never too bad. The Lakers have an over-under of 47.5 wins at DraftKings Sportsbook, tied for the fifth-highest in the Western Conference after the Oklahoma City Thunder (62.5), Houston Rockets (54.5), Denver Nuggets (53.5), and Timberwolves (50.5).
If you’re interested in seeing any of the other NBA teams’ projected win totals, check out DKN‘s master list of the full 2025-2026 NBA projected win totals.
Los Angeles Lakers 2025-2026 projected win total
Analysis
Los Angeles more or less stood pat during the offseason while the rest of the Western Conference got better. The Thunder retained all of the players that helped them win a championship, the Rockets added Kevin Durant and poached Dorian Finney-Smith from the Lakers, and the Nuggets swapped Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson. That’s not to mention teams with lower projected win totals than Los Angeles who added major pieces; the LA Clippers swapped Norman Powell for John Collins, and the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs drafted potential franchise-changing talents.
Yet the Lakers still have Luka Dončić, one of just four players in NBA history to make five All-NBA first teams in his first six seasons before injuries robbed him of another selection in 2024-25. Dončić was downright spectacular in his 28 games with Los Angeles, averaging 28.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 7.6 assists per game while making 37.9% of his triples. But the Lakers fizzled out in the postseason, losing in five to Minnesota, as the Timberwolves relentlessly hunted Dončić on defense and controlled the glass against a center-less Los Angeles unit.
Deandre Ayton’s availability on the buyout market was a surprise, and the two-year, $16.6 million deal he inked should be decent value. However, he’s not exactly an elite rim protector; among the 221 players who played at least 40 games and guarded at least three shots per game within six feet, Ayton allowed just the 67th-lowest percentage. He also was riddled with injuries — he’s played more than 70 games only once in his NBA career — and posted a negative box plus-minus figure on both sides of the ball. Jake LaRavia, a 42.3% three-point shooter last season, was a better pickup, but he doesn’t aid the defense and continues to add to the logjam at power forward, which also features Rui Hachimura and LeBron James.
Plus, there’s always a chance that James requests a trade after his agent, Klutch Sports’ Rich Paul, released a statement that carried more than a hint of displeasure with Los Angeles’ current direction headed into James’ record 23rd season in the NBA. Any trade centered around the 40-year-old would likely focus on bringing in a defensive-oriented wing to replace Finney-Smith and an upgrade over Ayton in the middle.
Los Angeles Lakers projected win total: Best bets, predictions
Los Angeles Lakers Under 47.5 (+100)
This one is hard to call because it seems likely that the Lakers will make another move before the end of the regular season, whether in the buyout market or using their limited trade assets. They did win 50 games last season and were on a 53-win pace in the games in which Dončić appeared, but their depth is still a major question mark and they were outscored by 0.3 points per 100 possessions in the minutes Dončić sat. Los Angeles will also have to assume some regression from James, especially if he’s not fully engaged and confident in the roster.
There has been no indication that Dončić won’t sign a four-year, $228 million extension on August 2, allowing the organization to be patient as it builds a championship team around him, but this current iteration of the Lakers isn’t that.
