The NBA offseason is in full force with huge trades and signings, and DraftKings Sportsbook has released win O/Us for every NBA team. Below, I break down the Atlanta Hawks’ upcoming season and whether to bet over or under the club’s win total. If you’re interested in seeing any of the other NBA teams’ projected win totals, be sure to check out DraftKings Network‘s master list of the full 2025-2026 NBA projected win totals.
Atlanta Hawks 2025-2026 projected win total
Analysis
The Hawks have had a very busy summer. The team acquired Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker via trades, and Atlanta signed Luke Kennard via free agency. As for departures, the Hawks lost Clint Capela, Caris LeVert, Larry Nance Jr., Terance Mann and Georges Niang via trade or free agency.
Porzingis is the main piece the Hawks acquired this offseason and on paper, the versatile big man should be an excellent fit with Atlanta. Porzingis can stretch the floor with his outside shot and he is an elite interior defender, which is exactly what the Hawks need, as the club’s defense gave up the ninth-most points in the paint last season. The problem is, while Porzingis may be very effective when he plays, he is extremely unreliable when it comes to availability. During his two-year tenure in Boston, Porzingis missed 77 of 194 games, which is nearly 40% of the contests. The big man’s time with the Celtics ended on a very strange note, as Porzingis was a shell of himself in the Celtics’ second-round series vs. the Knicks this past postseason.
Due to an apparent illness, the 29-year-old saw less than 20 minutes in five of the six games against New York in the Eastern Conference Semifinals and even months later, it still hasn’t been fully explained what was going on with Porzingis during the series. This was obviously an extremely puzzling situation and is just one example of Porzingis’ unreliable tendencies. The fragile big man has played less than 60 games in nine of his 12 seasons in the NBA and Porzingis is almost guaranteed to miss a good chunk of games next season with the Hawks. So, while this may seem like an excellent move that puts Atlanta up a tier as a team, history suggests otherwise and it’s difficult to have faith in Porzingis.
As for Alexander-Walker and Kennard, both are strong, veteran additions, but the bottom line is, they are just role players who are slated to come off the bench to start the season. Plus, Alexander-Walker and Kennard are wings, and with the losses of Capela, Nance and Niang up front, the Hawks are rather thin on big men. The club did draft Asa Newell at No. 23 in last month’s NBA Draft and he stands at 6’10,” but Newell is a rookie and Atlanta needs to add another big to this roster. Not only will Porzingis absolutely miss time next season, but Jalen Johnson is coming off a shoulder surgery and he is also a big man who has a long history of missing games. In his four years in the NBA, Johnson has only played in 184 games, meaning he has missed more than half of his possible contests.
Trae Young is a reliable All-Star who has averaged over 20 points and 10 assists for three straight seasons, and Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher are both ascending wings who should continue to improve next season, but Atlanta’s lack of depth and reliability in the frontcourt make it difficult to believe the team is going to take a huge step forward next season.
Atlanta Hawks projected win total: Best bets, predictions
Atlanta Hawks U 46.5 Wins (+100)
The Hawks won 40 games last season and the team hasn’t won more than 43 games in nine straight seasons. Atlanta could get off to a strong start, but it’s hard to imagine the injury bug not catching up to this group and putting a damper on the club’s aspirations.
The Hawks have the potential to improve after last season and should make the playoffs for the first time in three years in the weak Eastern Conference, but expecting Atlanta to win over 46.5 games is just unrealistic and betting under this high bar is an easy choice at these appealing +100 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
