My MLB Picks for July 7, 2025, will feature some of my favorite player props and team picks for the games starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. All of these bets can be found on DraftKings Sportsbook. You can view the relevant page by clicking on the headline for each bet.
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MLB Picks: Player Props and Team Props for Monday, July 7, 2025
Boston Red Sox over 5.5 runs -120 vs. Colorado Rockies
This bet won’t be a secret tonight, as I’m sure many will be on the over for the Red Sox team total against the Rockies and Austin Gomber. To make the situation more favorable, it’ll be warm and muggy at Fenway Park, with winds blowing out toward left field.
Gomber’s 5.49 ERA is accompanied by an xERA of 6.14, which indicates the damage against him should be worse. It’s particularly obvious in his last start against the Astros, where he only allowed two runs but gave up eight hits. He’s also experiencing a massive drop in his strikeout numbers, which were never high to begin with. Granted, it’s only been 19.2 innings, but Gomber currently has a 2.7 K/9. In his last three starts, he’s only induced two strikeouts. This means he’s allowing almost all contact, which will lead him to trouble as the season goes on. It’s likely a short outing for him tonight, which means plenty of the Rockies’ bullpen. Should that be the case, it’s a good indication that the Red Sox exceed their team total.
Mookie Betts 2+ H/R/RBI -105 vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Betts will face Brewers starter Freddy Peralta tonight in Milwaukee. While Peralta sports a solid 2.91 ERA, his 3.82 xERA tells a slightly different story, suggesting some regression could be on the horizon. That said, the numbers are still respectable overall.
Peralta relies heavily on two primary pitches—his four-seam fastball and changeup, which together make up over 70% of his arsenal. Dating back to last season, Betts has performed well against both: he owns a .365 wOBA against the four-seam and a .366 wOBA against the changeup.
The four-seamer is particularly intriguing. Opposing hitters are batting just .207 against it, but the expected batting average (xBA) sits at .261, indicating he’s been getting some favorable results.
This feels like a sneaky good spot for Betts and could be the start of a big offensive night for the Dodgers.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres over 4.5 runs through first five innings +100
I believe we’ll see a healthy dose of offense early in this game. Zac Gallen will face off against the returning Yu Darvish, who’s making his 2025 season debut. Darvish likely won’t pitch deep into this game, as he made just one rehab start, lasting four innings. In that outing, he allowed two runs on two hits and recorded four strikeouts. Facing the Diamondbacks isn’t an easy assignment, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Darvish struggle a bit here. There’s also a strong chance he exits before the fifth inning—whether due to performance or pitch count.
Gallen, on the other hand, has struggled all season. While he hasn’t been quite as bad as his 5.45 ERA suggests—his xERA sits at 4.81—that mark is still far from reassuring. Home runs have been an unusual issue for him this year, as he’s posted a career-high 1.73 HR/9. He’s already given up 20 home runs—just two shy of his career-high from 2023, which he set over 210 innings. The last time he faced the Padres, he allowed four runs over 6.1 innings, giving up six hits and issuing four walks.
Good luck with these MLB picks tonight!
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