As a Los Angeles Dodgers fan, it’s my favorite day of the week, especially after coming off a sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros: Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,500) day! The Japanese star was named to his first All-Star team yesterday — undoubtedly the first of many.
Any time he pitches, he’s a must-start, especially with the Dodgers in desperate need of a good pitching performance after a rough weekend. Here are two others to pair with him in your lineups for tonight’s featured DFS contest.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $225K Rally Cap [$50K to 1st]
SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, $10,500
After a rough June, Yamamoto was as brilliant as ever on July 1, needing just 98 pitches to breeze through seven innings of one-run ball, allowing just three hits and one walk while striking out eight (31.35 FPTS), marking the second straight outing in which he’s recorded 25 or more FPTS and his third straight solid start. Two uncharacteristic blow-ups in June aside, he’s been a top-five pitcher in the National League all season, and at +3000, he has the fifth-shortest odds to win NL Cy Young at DraftKings Sportsbook. He’s been even more un-hittable on the road, posting a 1.57 ERA and averaging 23.2 FPTS per game in his eight starts away from Dodger Stadium.
To be fair, the Brewers are in fairly good form, posting a 25-12 record over their past 37 games to climb into second place in the NL Central, four games behind the Chicago Cubs. Across that span, their offense has recorded a .757 OPS, a mark that would be the league’s fifth-best on a season-long basis, but they’ve posted just a .658 OPS at home this season, the fifth-worst mark in the league. They’re also not well-suited to take advantage of Yamamoto’s biggest weakness; though he ranks in just the 40th percentile in average exit velocity, Milwaukee makes the softest contact in baseball.
OF George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, $5,000
Toronto in on a roll, having won each of its last eight games, and it holds a three-game lead in the AL East over the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. The Blue Jays last won the division in 2015, so it’s been a while since fans up north have seen an elite baseball team, but they currently have the second-shortest odds (+150) to win it. Across its win streak, Toronto has put up an .812 OPS, which would be 22 points better than Los Angeles’ league-leading mark. Springer has been particularly hot; in his last 10 games, he’s slashed .410/.477/.795 with five homers, 15 RBI’s, and 11 runs scored (15.5 FPTS per game).
Even though the game will take place at pitcher-friendly Rate Field and Springer has been somewhat better at the Rogers Centre, I will continue to back the Blue Jays until they prove otherwise. Sean Burke ($5,500) is coming off of three very solid starts in a row, conceding just two earned runs over his last 16.1 innings (20.7 FPTS per game), but he’s gotten exceptionally lucky this season, with an 11th-percentile expected ERA and 19th-percentile barrel rate. 40% of his pitches are four-seam fastballs, and this season, Springer has posted an expected wOBA of .438 against the pitch, launching at over 95 miles per hour 56.1% of the time.
2B Jose Altuve, Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians, $4,500
At the age of 35, the diminutive Venezuelan still has it. He’s been on fire over his last seven games, recording double-digit fantasy points in six of them and smacking four homers to go along with a .393/.455/.964 slash line across that span (17.4 FPTS per game). The Astros had an offensive explosion on Friday in an 18-1 Independence Day win, with Altuve enjoying his third two-homer game of the season (47 FPTS). He’s also been somewhat better at home, averaging 8.1 FPTS per game in Southeast Texas and 7.8 on the road.
Tanner Bibee ($7,000), meanwhile, has had pretty rough last four starts for a Guardians team that has lost each of their last 10 games. Over his last four starts, Bibee has given up 15 runs (14 earned) in 23 innings, good for just a 5.48 ERA, as Cleveland has lost all four (13.7 FPTS per game). His pitches haven’t fooled anyone this season, as he ranks in the fifth percentile in chase rate and just the 42nd in whiff rate, which should mitigate Altuve’s tendency to chase. Bibee also has extreme home-road splits, with a 5.24 ERA on the road and a 2.57 mark at pitcher-friendly Progressive Field.
