While some bets are long plays that can last a while, even a whole season, others are set up to be quick hitters that settle almost instantly, giving bettors short-term payouts, instant gratification, and time to flip their winnings into other contests. One of those kind of short-term plays to catch throughout the summer are MLB NRFI bets.
Over the last few years, Major League Baseball has done a lot to try and speed up the game, with the addition of the pitch clock and extra runners in extra innings. However, even with the average game time shrinking, one of the most popular quick ways to jump on the board for a quick baseball fix is an NRFI (no run first inning) prop bet.
Here are my favorite spots for some MLB NRFI best bets for this Monday.
Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles (-125)
We’ll start with the first game on the board as the Rays roll into the Motor City to face the Tigers. Shane Baz gets the start for Tampa while Keider Montero is expected to be recalled for the Tigers to get the start, although they may use an opener ahead of him.
Both teams have good offenses, for sure, but the trends are tilted toward the starting pitchers getting through the first inning unscathed. The Rays are on a seven-game NRFI streak while the Tigers are on a three-game streak as well. In the last 14 games, the Rays have only scored in two of their first innings while the Tigers have only scored four times in the first.
Baz has allowed a first-inning run in only one of his 17 starts this season, while Montero has allowed a first-inning run in one of his six starts.
Of all the games at Comerica Park this season, 57% of the matchups have had NRFI, and based on both team’s current form, it looks like this game will lean in that direction as well.
Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros (-130)
The Guardians offense has been on the struggle bus over the last few weeks while the team has gone into a 10-game tailspin. Since they’re not scoring many runs in any inning, it’s no surprise that the first inning hasn’t been an exception, making them a good target for today’s MLB NRFI bets.
The Guardians have scored in the first inning in just two of their last 14 games and in five of their 26 games on the season against lefties. They also have just nine games with a run in the first inning on the road, for an 80% NRFI on their side in that scenario. Going against lefty Colton Gordon on the road should make this side a pretty “safe” side of the NRFI equation. I like Gordon as one of my top value plays for DFS as well.
The other side is a little less certain but still worth backing at these odds. The Astros have scored in the first inning in four of their last 14 games, but they are tied with the Guardians overall with a 78% NRFI percentage on the season, the highest two marks in the MLB.
Tanner Bibee gets the ball for the Guardians, and he has allowed runs in the first inning of five of his 17 starts on the season, but just two of his last 12. He hasn’t been nearly as strong overall in his last few outings but has still been able to get through the first inning, which is all he needs to do to make this prop hit on Monday night.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals (-115)
In an interleague matchup of two teams from the Central divisions, the Royals host the Pirates, and the series starts with a matchup of lefties as Noah Cameron takes on Andrew Heaney.
While both offenses have been underwhelming overall this season, the Royals actually scored in the first inning in five of their last 14 games. The Pirates have only scored in the first inning three times in their last 14 games, and in 10 of their 44 games (23%) on the road this season.
The Royals have hit 63% on their NRFI bets this year, while the Pirates are at 58% on the season.
The main reason I like this prop, though, is the starting pitchers. Cameron has gotten through the first inning with no runs allowed in eight of his 10 starts (80%), while Heaney has done the same in 12 of his 17 outings (71%).
As long as the weather doesn’t do something weird to this matchup with the wind suddenly blowing out or something, it should be a pretty good spot to grab the third of our MLB NRFI bets for this Monday.
