Major League Baseball kicks off the final week of action before the All-Star break with 10 games on the schedule Monday night. While we don’t have Coors Field or Sutter Health Park in play, there are still some nice home run spots on the board, offering some juicy home run props to target. After looking at the home run props on the board for Monday, my favorite three home run props are from Carlos Narvaez, George Springer and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Just a quick reminder before we swing for the fences with today’s home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in well under than half of their games, home run props are never “safe” picks, even if every single factor seems to indicate a long ball is about to be launched.
What makes home run props fun is that the long odds mean big returns when they do hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters goes yard — get those QTs and RTs ready on X! Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on. It also makes sense to use these home run props with other picks in SGPs or parlay plays. I also like to play them at small money in round robins, boosting their upside even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Monday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Carlos Narvaez to record 1+ home runs (+350)
Narvaez and the Red Sox are home at Fenway Park where the weather will be warm and muggy with the wind blowing out. It should be a good environment for home runs for a top offense. The Red Sox have scored an MLB-leading 49 runs over the last week with nine homers and a .395 wOBA.
Against lefty Austin Gomber and the shaky Rockies bullpen, it should be a good place to target for home run props on Monday night, and I think Narvaez is a sneaky strong value play. Narvaez has two homers in his last 19 games and seven on the season.
The right-handed hitting catcher was out of the lineup on Sunday, but he has hit .296 with four homers and a .403 wOBA against left-handed pitchers like Gomber. He also has over half his home runs at home at Fenway Park, where he has a .420 wOBA.
Narvaez is one of the Red Sox young core of solid hitters, and he should be in a premium lineup spot against Gomber on Monday night at the Fens, making him one of my top three home run props on the board.
George Springer to record 1+ home runs (+295)
Springer dingers have been on the rise over the last few weeks, as the Blue Jays have caught fire as a team and surged to the top of the AL East. As a team, the Blue Jays have 15 homers in 13 games with a .336 wOBA and an average of 6.3 runs per game over the last two weeks.
Springer has a pair of multi-homer games and six homers in his last 12 games, giving him 16 homers on the season. He has a 45.7% hard-hit rate and a 13.0% barrel rate over that span with an average exit velocity of 87.7 miles per hour.
Springer is hitting .300 with 11 of his 16 homers against right-handed pitchers, so he’ll be on the strong side of those splits on Monday night against Sean Burke and the White Sox in Chicago.
Burke is 4-7 with a 4.03 ERA, 4.83 FIP and a 1.40 WHIP. He has given up a 41.7% hard-hit rate and 10.6% barrel rate while giving up 13 homers in 17 games. Righties like Springer hit just over half of those homers, and they have a .346 wOBA against him.
Springer has hit .297 with three homers in his 24 career games against the White Sox in Chicago, and he’s hot enough to be one of my top home run props for Monday night in this favorable matchup.
Fernando Tatis Jr. to record 1+ home runs (+300)
Tatis has 15 homers on the season, but he has only gone yard twice in his last 35 games. I like the righty to catch a barrel on Monday, though, since he’ll have a good matchup at home against Zac Gallen and has been showing signs of snapping out of his slump that has helped his odds get this long.
Tatis had two hard-hit batted ball events on Sunday night against the Rangers and has a 52.6% hard-hit rate over his last seven games with an elite average exit velocity of 92 miles per hour. He has gone 8-for-26 (.308) over that short span with a .376 wOBA.
He has hit two homers in the past against Gallen and 11 of his 15 homers this season have come at Petco Park, where he’s hitting .270 with a .382 wOBA.
Gallen has struggled this season, going 6-9 with a 5.45 ERA and 4.97 FIP. He has given up 20 homers in 104 innings, with 11 of those homers on the road and 11 by right-handed hitters.
Tatis has the splits leaning his direction and a good enough history against Gallen to be one of the best home run props from the late games on Monday night.
