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How does the Norman Powell trade affect the Heat’s projected win total, odds to win the NBA championship?

How does the Norman Powell trade affect the Heat’s projected win total, odds to win the NBA championship?

Sports Betting Picks NBA DraftKings Sportsbook Insights Rail

Updated:

By: Alex Hunter

As part of a three-team trade with Clippers and the Jazz, the Heat have acquired Powell on Monday. Per ESPN’s Shams Charania, the Heat will be receiving Powell, while the Clippers will be receiving John Collins and the Jazz will be receiving Kevin Love, Kyle Anderson and a 2027 second-round pick.

With the Heat only losing two aging veterans in Love and Anderson personnel wise in the deal for Powell, Miami looks like the clear winner of this trade. In his first season as a full-time starter for the Clippers, Powell averaged a career-high 21.8 PPG on a 48% field goal percentage last season and many believed his impressive play should have earned the wing the first All-Star selection of his career.

Powell is an elite scorer and his presence should be a huge boost for the Heat, who struggled offensively last season, ranking 21st in offensive rating. With Powell on the floor last season, the Clippers boasted a 117.6 offensive rating, which would have ranked fifth in the NBA if it was Los Angeles’ average for the season. Furthermore, Powell had a rock solid campaign as a defender. With the 32-year-old on the floor last season, the Clippers owned a 109.3 defensive rating, which was notably better the team’s 112.3 defensive rating with Powell off the floor. Overall, Powell ranked third in plus/minus for the Clippers in the regular season, trailing only Kawhi Leonard and Ivica Zubac.

Post-trade odds movement

While the Heat’s odd to win the 2025-26 NBA Championship haven’t moved following this trade and remain at +25000 on DraftKings Sportsbook, Miami’s odds to win the Southeast Division have moved from +2500 to +1800 and the team’s O/U for wins has moved from 36.5 to 37.5.

Considering the Heat finished with 37 wins a year ago and the organization gave up little to acquire Powell, backing Miami for over 37.5 wins at a reasonable -105 price on DraftKings Sportsbook makes sense. Not only did the Heat add Powell this offseason, but the team also extended Davion Mitchell, who thrived for the Heat late last season and there are rumors circulating that Miami could be a top suitor for Bradley Beal if the shooting guard is bought out by the Suns. While the former All-Star is coming off a down season in Phoenix, Beal still averaged 17.0 PPG last year and the three-time All-Star joining the Heat could increase the club’s O/U wins on DraftKings Sportsbook even further, so attacking the team for over 37.5 wins now is smart.

Alex Hunter
Alex Hunter is an avid DFS player and sports handicapper, who has been a proud member of the DraftKings Network team since 2020. He is a data-driven analyst, who earned his bachelor’s degree in communications at Worcester State University and has been in the sports content business for nearly a decade, covering the NBA, NFL and PGA TOUR. Alex is a diehard Boston Celtics fan, who loves to be on the golf course when he isn’t grinding lineups or producing content. For all of Alex’s work or if you need any lineup advice, be sure to follow him @Hunta512 on X.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.