The Dream are hosting the Valkyries on Monday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Atlanta is a seven-point favorite and the contest carries a total of 158 points.
Below, I break down this matchup between the Dream and the Valkyries and give a pick for the game.
Dream vs. Valkyries preview, prediction
The Dream and Valkyries are going head-to-head for the first time this season Monday in Atlanta. This season, the Dream are 11-7 and rank fourth in net rating, while the Valkyries are 9-8 at eighth in net rating.
Atlanta has lost three of its last four, but the team will get Rhyne Howard (upper body) back from a one-game absence as she has been removed from the Dream’s injury report. Howard’s return is huge news for the Dream as she ranks second for the team in scoring at 16.8 PPG while adding 5.2 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. On Sunday, Howard was deservedly named to her third All-Star appearance.
The Valkyries are coming off a loss to the top-seeded Lynx on Saturday, but prior to that, Golden State had won four of its last five. Like the Dream, the Valkyries are trending towards getting a key player back Monday in Carla Leite. The rookie has missed the last four games with a back injury and is listed as questionable, but Leite did participate in Monday morning’s shootaround, which bodes well for her chances of playing against the Dream.
While Howard returning for the Dream is much bigger news, Leite’s return is notable for Valkyries as the rookie is a terrific defender who can make an impact even with a small role. With the rookie on the floor this season, Golden State owns an elite 92.1 defensive rating.
The problem for the Valkyries in this matchup vs. the Dream is Golden State’s reliance on the outside shot. This season, the Valkyries rank first in three-pointers attempted per game and fifth in three-pointers made per game, while the Dream are limiting opponents to the fewest made three-pointers in the league. While Golden State’s offense has been strong lately, the club could hit a wall in this road matchup.
Dream vs. Valkyries pick, best bet
The Dream have the tools to slow down the Valkyries’ offense and Howard returning makes Atlanta tough to pick against on their home floor. The Dream are 7-3 at home this season, while the Valkyries are just 2-5 on the road. Atlanta should defeat Golden State, so backing the Dream at -7 is the right move for this tilt. Atlanta is 10-8 ATS this season and six of the club’s seven wins at home have been by eight points or more.
