In the final game of today’s WNBA triple-header, the Minnesota Lynx will host the Chicago Sky. Napheesa Collier and company will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back, and this will be Minnesota’s fourth game in July already.
The Lynx continue to lead the WNBA standings with their 16-2 overall record, leading the WNBA in offensive rating, field goal percentage, and three-point percentage, while ranking second in scoring. In contrast, the Sky enters with a 5-11 overall record with some significant defensive concerns. Chicago is allowing the second-most points at 87.7 per game while ranking 12th in the league in scoring.
You cannot get far when discussing the Lynx without bringing up the outstanding production of Napheesa Collier, who has climbed to a -300 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook to win WNBA MVP. The four-time All-Star is averaging 24.5 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists while shooting 38.9% from beyond the three-point arc and bringing her usual level of impact defense.
Looking at tonight’s matchup, the Lynx enter as 14.5-point favorites and -1100 favorites on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Ghicago holds +700 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 161.
Here are my favorite Napheesa Collier prop bets for Sunday’s Lynx vs. Sky matchup.
Best Napheesa Collier Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Napheesa Collier Over 8.5 Rebounds (+120)
While there are plenty of flaws to discuss on this Chicago Sky team, rebounding is not one of them. They rank fourth in the WNBA in rebounds per game, sixth in opponents’ rebounds allowed, and third in overall rebounding percentage.
Napheesa Collier is already the leading rebounder on the Lynx team at 8.1 boards per contest. Her responsibility could grow if Alanna Smith is to be limited. While she is officially listed as probable, Smith left last night’s game with a knee injury and also had to take a trip to the locker room to address an ankle issue during the game. Her night ended early due to the knee issue, and Smith was not moving well during the final minutes that she was on the floor. The reigning All-Defensive second-team member is averaging 10.4 points and 5.5 rebounds on the season.
This will be the first matchup between these two teams this season, and look for Collier to make use of her 6-foot-1 frame. Collier averaged 9.7 rebounds per game last season and has recorded over 8.5 rebounds in seven of the 15 games she has played. Count on her to welcome the challenge of facing off with Angel Reese and be active on the glass tonight. Collier is a better rebounder than she has fully put on display this season, with her 8.1 rebounds per game ranking the fourth most she has produced per game across a season. This is the type of matchup where she will need to call on this, especially if Smith is limited.
Collier will do whatever is necessary for this Minnesota team, with the battle on the boards a key factor tonight. Getting +120 on DraftKings Sportsbook is great value, and count on Collier to deliver for her team with over 8.5 rebounds tonight.
Napheesa Collier to Record 2+ Made Three-Pointers (+130)
Three-point production is not at the top of the list for Napheesa Collier’s skill set, but she has leaned on this area at a greater rate this season. The Lynx star is shooting 38.9% from beyond the three-point arc this season, on a career-high 3.6 perimeter shots per game. Collier has shot as well as 40.8% from beyond the three-point arc across a season in her career.
I backed Collier to record 2+ made three-pointers in last night’s game, but she knocked down her lone three-pointer attempt. This marks the only time this season she has attempted just one. With an even more favorable matchup against the Sky, I am going back to the well. Chicago is tied for last in opponents’ three-point attempts at 27.6 perimeter shots allowed per game, and is last in opponents’ three-point percentage allowed at 39.2%. They have made it a clear priority to protect on the interior and control the glass, but they are vulnerable from the perimeter as a result.
Collier has tallied 2+ made three-pointers in seven games this season. Tired legs can oftentimes lead to an increase in jump shots, and Minnesota is coming off a draining stretch. With three games in the past five days and on the second night of a back-to-back, expect fatigue to be a factor. Collier alone has logged 93 game minutes across this stretch. She attempted nine combined three-pointers in the two games before last night. Count on her to be willing to launch from deep, where the Chicago defense will be vulnerable, and force her in the first place. The one three-point attempt last night was uncharacteristically low, and I am backing Collier to connect with at least two three-pointers tonight.
