Major League Baseball has three games under the lights this Sunday night with the Cubs and Cardinals on the schedule for 6:15 p.m. ET followed by games from San Diego and Sacramento later in the evening. Let’s examine those three matchups and find some starting pitcher prop bets for this Sunday night. After looking at the markets and options on the board, my top props on Sunday night include selections from Matthew Boyd, Hayden Birdsong and Jacob Lopez.
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Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Matthew Boyd under 4.5 hits allowed (-125)
While yesterday was a great day for hitting at Wrigley Field, Sunday night looks like it’ll be ideal for pitching. The wind is forecast to be blowing in from left at 10-to-15 miles per hour after the storms clear.
Boyd has been excellent all season for the Cubs, posting a 2.44 ERA, 3.57 FIP and 0.88 WHIP at home. He has given up 36 hits in 48 innings at Wrigley Field in eight starts, averaging exactly 4.5 hits over those starts.
The veteran lefty allowed under this number of hits in five of his last seven starts and went just over with five hits allowed in his last outing against the Guardians. He took on the Cardinals in his previous start and allowed just three hits in six shutout innings to get the win in St. Louis.
Part of the reason Boyd should be able to hold the left-handed heavy Cardinals under this hit line is that the matchup is in his favor. The Cards are hitting only .234 against southpaws on the season, and Boyd has held lefties to a .230 batting average.
While it will be close, in the pitcher-friendly weather, I’ll take him to hold the Cardinals under this hitline on Sunday night. Even if the weather does interfere with his start (although it looks unlikely), that could shorten his outing and help him stay under this line as well.
Hayden Birdsong over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-125)
Birdsong has struggled for the Giants lately, and although he still has good potential long-term, he makes good sense to pick against in Sunday night’s starting pitcher prop bets.
In each of his last two starts, Birdsong has issued four walks while giving up a total of 10 earned runs to the Marlins and Diamondbacks. He has gone over this earned runs allowed line in four straight outings, and in five of his eight games since moving to the rotation.
Birdsong has been especially hittable by left-handed batters, as they have a .278 batting average and .383 wOBA against him. Since the A’s stack up multiple lefties with plenty of power, they should be set to smash the young righty at Sutter Health Park.
At home this year, the Athletics have hit .263 with a .330 wOBA and have averaged 4.4 runs per game at Sutter Health Park. In what should be a solid matchup, I think they’ll get at least three runs off Birdsong in the series finale.
Jacob Lopez to record a win (+240)
On the other side of the matchup, Lopez has been a solid starter for the Athletics, and I like him to record the win on Sunday night as a long-shot value play in my starting pitcher prop bets.
Lopez is -115 to allow under 2.5 runs, which is a solid play, but since I think the A’s will knock Birdsong around, Lopez should have a good shot at a victory as well.
The 27-year-old lefty has gone just 2-4 on the season with a 3.88 ERA and 4.26 FIP. He struggled in his last start against his former team the Rays, but he had been on a great run before that with zero or one run allowed in four straight starts and a 0.39 ERA, 2.00 FIP and a 0.91 WHIP over 23 innings.
The Giants have hit just .236 as a team over the last two weeks, averaging 4.0 runs per game. Lopez should be able to return to form and keep them in check on Sunday night.
While a “to record a win” prop is always high-risk since it relies on the starting pitcher, the offense and the bullpen to all collaborate, I love the value in playing Lopez to get the win on Sunday night in Sacramento.
