Even after a full early afternoon of baseball, Major League Baseball has more action lined up in the late afternoon and evening. Coors Field joins the action at 3:10 p.m. ET with three games at 4:10 p.m. ET and three more games late. Taking a look at the seven later matchups, let’s dive into the 14 matchups and find some juicy home run props to target this afternoon. After looking at the home run props on the board for late on Sunday, my top three home run props are from Colson Montgomery, Freddie Freeman and Wyatt Langford.
Just a quick reminder before we swing for the fences with today’s home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets. Since even the very best home run hitters hit home runs in less than half of their games, home run props are never “safe” picks, even if every single factor seems to indicate a dinger is on deck.
The upside and fun part of grabbing home run props is that the long odds mean big returns when they do hit. They’re always a fun way to flex your knowledge and celebrate when one of your hitters goes yard — get those QTs and RTs ready on X! Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on. It also makes sense to use these home run props with other picks in SGPs or parlay plays. I also like to play them at small money in round robins, boosting their upside even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Saturday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Colson Montgomery to record 1+ home runs (+550)
Let’s start the afternoon with a fun longshot in our home run props. White Sox rookie Colson Montgomery has had a great first weekend in the majors, making a hightlight reel catch in his debut on Friday and then picking up three hits on Saturday night. One of those hits could have been his first MLB homer but came up just short.
He finished the night 3-for-5 with the triple and has two hard-hit batted balls in his seven events since his promotion.
In the minors, Montgomery had a 37.0% hard-hit rate and smashed 11 homers in 55 games with a .215 batting average and .325 wOBA. He brings good pop nad should hit plenty of home runs as he adjusts to the majors.
He’ll be in a good matchup against fellow rookie Chase Dollander on Sunday afternoon. Dollander has allowed nine homers in 29 innings at home, giving up a .318 batting average and .415 wOBA. Lefties like Montgomery have hit nine of the 15 homers off of Dollander this season and have a .352 wOBA.
With just a tiny adjustment, last night could have been his first big league homer, and I think he has a good shot to get that first dinger at Coors this afternoon.
Freddie Freeman to record 1+ home runs (+360)
After dropping the first two games of their series against the Astros, the Dodgers will look to avoid a sweep at home on Sunday afternoon, and they’re in a great spot to put runs on the board against Ryan Gusto.
Gusto has a 4.90 ERA and 4.07 FIP with 10 homers allowed in 64 1/3 innings. Eight of 10 homers he has given up have been hit by lefties, so Freeman and Shohei Ohtani (+135) are solid home run props to consider. Freeman comes at a better value than Ohtani, but he should be in a good spot to deliver Sunday afternoon.
On the season, Freeman has 10 homers, and seven of those have come against righties like Gusto. He’s hitting .336 with a .403 wOBA on that side of the split and is also hitting .321 at home, with four homers and a .382 wOBA.
Freeman has a history of coming through in the clutch and this game will feel like a big game as the Dodgers look to avoid the sweep. Ohtani’s odds oare shorter, but Freeman could end up the best option from the home run props for the boys in Blue this Sunday.
Wyatt Langford to record 1+ home runs (+310)
With the wind blowing in at Wrigley, we’re skipping that game and going to one of the night matchups for the third of our home run props for the day. The Rangers have a nice matchup agianst Kyle Hart and the Padres at Petco Park. Langford just came back off the injured list after on oblique strain on Saturday, and he’ll look to get back into the home run column on Sunday night. He went 1-for-3 with a walk and two runs scored in his return on Saturday.
Langford has 13 homers in his 68 games this season, and four of those homers have come off lefties like Hart. He has actually done most of his damage on the road, where he has a .334 wOBA and hit his most recent homer back on June 12 in Minnesota. He did homer ealrier thsi week on his rehab.
He’ll look to go yard in the majors against Padres lefty Kyle Hart, who has allowed 19 runs in 25 2/3 innings this season. He’s served up eight homers in that limited sample size, and seven of those were hit by right-handed hitters, who have a .338 batting average and .449 wOBA against him.
Langford should be in a good spot to return value at these home run props on Sunday night in San Diego.
