This is the opener of a three-game series in Boston between the Red Sox and visiting Colorado Rockies.
Austin Gomber is scheduled to pitch for Colorado while Richard Fitts should get the nod for Boston.
Rockies at Red Sox prediction, preview
Austin Gomber has a laughable 6.9% strikeout rate and 2.3% K-BB% this season. Granted, it’s only been 19.2 innings for the lefty but still. The 5.49 ERA is supported by the 5.73 FIP. Gomber has served up four home runs already. Gomber isn’t allowing hard contact, but the barrel rate is 13%.
Righties are slashing .352/.378/.620 with all four home runs hit. Predictably, Coors Field hasn’t been a friendly place for him.
Gomber has pitched at least five innings in three of four starts. He allowed two, one and zero earned runs. In the fourth start, Gomber went 4.2 innings and got lit up for nine earned runs. This will be his first time facing Boston this season.
Against left-handed pitching, Boston has struck out at the 14th-highest rate while having the seventh-best ISO. The wOBA is second-best in MLB.
Richard Fitts averages 95.8 mph on the fastball, the swinging strike rate is 12.1% and the chase rate is 33.5% in 28 innings. The rest is pretty gross. The FIP is 5.95, compared to the 4.5 ERA. He’s allowed seven home runs with a 12.5% barrel rate and 42% hard hit rate.
Righties have hit all seven home runs off him and he’s been much better on the road. The K-BB% is 19.4% on the road with a 4.92 FIP while it’s -2% at home with a 7.79 FIP.
Fitts pitched six innings in each of the first two starts. Since then, he’s gone at least five innings only once. Three starts ago, he got blasted for five earned runs and three home runs in one inning of work. This will be the first time facing Colorado this season.
The Rockies have struck out at the highest rate against right-handed pitching while being 15th in ISO. The wOBA is 27th-best.
Since we know the Rockies get a boost at Coors Field, we must highlight their ineptitude on the road: highest strikeout rate, 23rd ISO and 29th wOBA.
As for bullpens, Colorado has the 28th-lowest FIP while Boston has the fifth-lowest.
Rockies at Red Sox, Best Bet
I think both pitchers can get lit up, but Gomber has actually pitched well on the road and limits hard contact. Fitts hasn’t been good but the Rockies are inept on the road.
