The Rangers and Padres have dominated on the mound this season. However, neither squad has enjoyed much success at the plate. Texas enters Saturday at 43-45, a far cry from any preseason World Series expectations. San Diego has been more competitive at 47-40, but every game is crucial in the top-heavy NL West division. Will either club pick up a much-needed win tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s contest between the Padres and Rangers.
The Padres are favorites (-123) over the Rangers, with the over/under set at eight runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s inter-league matchup.
Rangers vs. Padres prediction, preview
The most shocking statistic for the Rangers this season? Despite holding opponents to the fewest runs in baseball, the team finds itself two games below .500. That’s due to an absolutely anemic offense scoring just 3.77 runs per game, the league’s sixth-worst mark. Only four healthy regulars in Texas’ lineup have recorded a wRC+ greater than 100: Evan Carter (133), Corey Seager (123), Josh Smith (117) and Sam Haggerty (103). On the bright side, it this group has shown some signs of improvement recently. Since June 1st, the Rangers have scored the 15th-most runs in baseball (136).
A middling Texas offense awaits Padres starter Stephen Kolek tonight. The second-year pro has enjoyed a solid season, posting a 3.77 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through 62.2 innings. During the righty’s most recent outing, he tossed 5.2 innings of one-run ball against the Reds. Here’s the caveat: Kolek has an atrocious 9.20 ERA when pitching at Petco Park. Granted, he’s only made three starts at home this season. Still, it’s not as if the 28-year-old face elite offenses during that time, getting hit hard by the Mariners, Marlins and Nationals.
For the Rangers, it’ll be Patrick Corbin toeing the slab. Following a disastrous end to his tenure in Washington, the veteran has bounced back. Through 82.1 innings, he’s posted a respectable 4.26 ERA. The southpaw’s most impressive trait is his consistency. Corbin has surrendered more than three runs only twice this season. The Padres have generated the eighth-lowest OPS against left-handed pitchers (.652). In addition, San Diego has scored 30 runs over its last ten games, fourth-fewest in baseball during that time.
Rangers vs. Padres pick, best bet
Best Bet: Rangers ML (+101)
Neither starter tonight inspires much confidence. However, Corbin is less likely to implode than Kolek. Texas’ offense is slowly improving, while San Diego’s has been in steady decline. Since June 20th, both teams have won seven of their last 13 games. Considering how evenly matched these clubs are, I’ll go with the more experienced arm at plus money.
