In the second half of Saturday’s WNBA double-header, the Golden State Valkyries will travel to take on the Minnesota Lynx. The Lynx sit at the top of the WNBA standings, headlined by the production of WNBA MVP favorite Napheesa Collier.
Minnesota enters with a 15-2 record and will face a Golden State Valkyries team that has impressed in their inaugural season. The Valkyries enter with a 9-7 record and have won seven of their last nine entering tonight.
Collier headlines the production for the Lynx, averaging 24.6 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists while bringing her typical high level of impact on the defensive end. She has climbed to a -300 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook to win WNBA MVP this year.
Looking at tonight’s matchup, the Lynx enter as 9.5-point favorites and -470 favorites on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Golden State holds +360 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 156.
Here are my favorite Napheesa Collier prop bets for Saturday’s Lynx vs. Valkyries matchup.
Best Napheesa Collier Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Napheesa Collier Over 20.5 Points (-115)
The Lynx star enters tonight’s matchup averaging 24.6 points, and Collier has tallied over 20.5 points in 11 of the 14 games that she has played. Golden State is a strong defensive team, ranking second in opponents’ points allowed, second in defensive rating, and holding opponents to the worst field goal percentage in the league. The Valkyries also allow the fewest points in the paint to opponents.
But Collier is a different beast, and there is great value in getting her point prop at this low of a number. Minnesota plays through the MVP favorite in a variety of ways, and both Collier and the Lynx will provide a challenge beyond what the Valkyries are accustomed to. Minnesota ranks second in the league in points per game, first in offensive rating, and leads the league in both field goal and three-point efficiency.
Collier is at the root of this all, and the same should be expected tonight. She has scored over 20.5 points in three consecutive games and six of her last seven. These two teams also faced off once already this season, with Collier finishing with 24 points and 11 rebounds in this matchup. Golden State deserves credit for its defensive impact, but the Lynx are playing at a level that no one in the WNBA has consistently been able to match. Count on Collier leading the charge and pouring in over 20.5 points for the 12th time this season, and take advantage of the low prop line.
Napheesa Collier to Record 2+ Made Three-Pointers (+140)
Standing 6-foot-1, Napheesa Collier is a true three-level scorer who can put the ball in the bucket in a variety of ways. But she has shown some encouraging signs from beyond the three-point arc this season. Collier is attempting a career-high 3.8 perimeter attempts per game and connecting at a 37.7% rate. For her career, she has shot 32.3% from beyond the three-point arc on 2.8 perimeter shots per game. The four-time All-Star has shot as well as 40.8% from beyond the three-point arc over a season.
While the Valkyries are an excellent overall defensive team, they have shown some vulnerability from beyond the three-point arc. Opponents are shooting the lowest field goal percentage against them, but Golden State has allowed opponents to connect with 33.0% of their three-point attempts, which ranks sixth in the league. It’s also allowing 27.5 three-point attempts per game against them, which is the third-most in the WNBA.
Collier has tallied at least two made three-pointers in seven of the 14 games this season, including three games with three made three-pointers. She also shot 2-for-4 from the perimeter during the first matchup with the Valkyries. The MVP favorite has attempted at least two three-pointers in every game this season and as many as six in a contest. Perimeter shooting will never be Collier’s calling card, but this is an appealing matchup and spot for her. With the Valkyries looking vulnerable from this area, count on Collier to expose it with a pair of three-pointers tonight.
