Davis Thompson shot a four-under round on Saturday at TPC Deere Run to take a one-shot lead heading into the final round. He will be looking for his second consecutive John Deere Classic title if he hangs on. There are plenty of guys in contention to win, but I prefer to attack the placing markets instead.
Below I detail my two favorite bets for Sunday’s final round.
Lee Hodges to finish Top 10 +190
Hodges was absolutely dialed in with his irons on Saturday, gaining a whopping 4.57 strokes on approach to clear the entire field by 2.05 strokes. Unfortunately for him, he could not get a single putt to drop, as he lost 1.85 strokes on the greens. Hodges was forced to settle for a three-under 68 in his third round, but there is still room for improvement if he finds his flat stick on Sunday.
Hodges currently sits at T15 and just two shots back of T6 as we head to the final round. Despite his poor putting performance on moving day, Hodges was great during Round 1 on the bentgrass, gaining 2.21 strokes for the on the day. On the week he ranks ninth in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green and second on approach, so if he is even neutral on the greens on Sunday he should cruise into the top 10.
At almost 2/1, I will take my chance
Kurt Kitayama to finish Top 5 +160
The book on Kitayama is simple, he’s one of the purest ball-strikers on the PGA TOUR while simultaneously ranking as one of the worst putters. This week, however, he’s been quite good on the greens, gaining .63 strokes per round over his first three. For him, that’s basically Denny McCarthy levels. It’s no surprise to see that Kitayama is currently T6 as we head into the final round, because whenever he putts well he contends.
Kitayama ranks second in the field so far this week in SG: Off-the-Tee and 19th in SG: Approach. He sits currently just two strokes back of T2 and three strokes back of the lead. His advantage with the driver is such a weapon in an event like this, and I expect him to have a strong final round after what he’s shown with the putter so far this week. You can even sprinkle a live outright on him at +1600.