Following Friday’s 2-1 victory, the Tigers sit atop the American League at 55-34. It’s a different story for the Guardians, who are now six games below .500 (40-46). Despite their very different records, games between these two rivals often go down to the wire. What should fans and bettors expect from Detroit and Cleveland tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s contest between the Tigers and Guardians.
The Tigers are favorites (-136) over the Guardians, with the over/under set at nine runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s AL Central matchup.
Tigers vs. Guardians prediction, preview
While many pegged the Tigers as a postseason contender, few could have predicted this kind of breakout. On offense, Detroit has scored the league’s fifth-most runs per game, led by stealth MVP candidate Riley Greene. Last season’s Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, makes this one of baseball’s most dangerous clubs. However, there are a few other arms that have helped round out the rotation. Look no further than former first overall draft pick Casey Mize. It’s taken some time, but the 28-year-old is finally living up to his prospect pedigree. Over 78.2 innings of work, the righty has notched a 2.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 69 strikeouts.
Against most teams, Mize would be a fairly safe bet. That’s especially true against a Cleveland squad averaging 3.60 runs per game, fifth-fewest in the majors. As a team, the Guardians have posted the league’s second-lowest batting average (.228) and sixth-lowest OPS (.681) against right-handed pitching. Mize has had success in this matchup; the veteran tossed five innings of one-run ball against Cleveland in May. As good as Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan have been, this lineup doesn’t have much else to brag about.
If the Guards have any shot at an upset win, they’ll need a solid performance from Logan Allen. The third-year pro has a limited ceiling, but he’s also one of Cleveland’s more consistent arms. In each of his previous four starts, the righty hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs. During that time, Allen has logged an ERA of 3.91. That’s not exactly dominance, but the 26-year-old has what it takes to keep this Tigers offense in check.
Tigers vs. Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Tigers vs. Guardians under nine runs (-110)
Even if Allen gets lit up tonight, it’s difficult to envision the same for Mize. The Guardians have scored a league-worst 79 runs since June 1st. In fact, it’s not even close; the next lowest team is the White Sox with 98. Keeping that in mind, a total of nine runs feels generous on Saturday.
