It’s fitting that all but one of the games today on the early afternoon slate for Independence Day features a team wearing red, white, and blue.
For the 4:10 p.m. game, that’s the Minnesota Twins, will host the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays will be starting Zack Littell, while the Twins are opting for Chris Paddack.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins prediction, preview
Though it’s still early in the summer, Tampa Bay is fighting for its division. An uncharacteristic slip from the stacked New York Yankees — they’ve lost four straight games — has dropped them into a tie for second in the division with the Rays, one game behind the Toronto Blue Jays. Tampa Bay’s offense has been red-hot: since May 20, it has gone 27-13 and recorded an .817 OPS, a mark that would easily lead the league across the full season, and though it have no All-Star starters, Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Díaz, and Junior Caminero certainly deserve a look. The Rays last made the World Series in 2020 and have the sixth-best odds of winning the American League.
Minnesota is 41-46, seventh in the AL Wild Card standings and 12.5 games behind the division- and AL-leading Detroit Tigers. The Twins have been mediocre on both sides of the ball this season, posting the ninth-worst OPS and the ninth-worst ERA. They’ve gone especially cold with the rising temperatures, going just 7-19 in their last 26 games, and their pitchers have posted a ghastly 6.23 ERA across that span while their offense has continued to be a below-average unit. Paddack has been part of that problem; on June 13, he gave up nine runs (eight earned) on 12 hits in four innings against the Houston Astros. He’s since settled down slightly, giving up 12 runs (11 earned) across his last 14.2 innings, but I don’t have high hopes for him tonight.
Across its hot streak, Tampa Bay has had about a league-average pitching staff, which is sufficient given its offense. But since a rocky opener to the season, in which he gave up 13 runs in his first 17 innings, Littell has been sharp, pitching to a 2.98 ERA over his last 87.2 innings, making it through at least five innings in every start, and giving up more than three runs just once. He has a problem with conceding homers — his 23 lead all of baseball — and his 5.11 FIP figure indicate that he’s gotten exceptionally lucky, but with his 99th-percentile walk rate, the tools are there. Backed by a top-five defense, Littell should be able to keep Minnesota in check.
Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-106)
Tampa Bay is 20-14 on the road so far this season, the most games over .500 of any team despite the league’s lowest road volume. Despite their losing record overall, the Twins are over .500 at home, so those two factors cancel out. In a vacuum, the Rays are simply the better and hotter team.
Strong Lean: Byron Buxton 1+ Home Runs (+205)
Minnesota’s cold streak hasn’t been Buxton’s fault; the veteran has slashed .282/.384/.647 with nine home runs over his last 24 games. Plus, his OPS has been 173 points better at home this season than on the road, and 15 of his 19 homers have come against right-handed pitchers. Littell has given up 15 bombs in just eight games away from Steinbrenner Field.
