Three days ago, this seemed like it might be a battle for supremacy in the NL Central. However, the Cubs come into Friday with a 5.5-game lead over the Cardinals in the division, as Chicago has won three in a row and St. Louis has dropped three in a row. How’s that for symmetry?
Either way, there’s few things that I can think of that scream “Fourth of July” more than these two age-old rivals squaring off at Wrigley Field on a warm summer afternoon.
Let’s preview this huge matinee matchup in the altitude with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction, preview
If the Cubs consider themselves to be true contenders for a World Series crown, it feels like they’re going to need to acquire another starting pitcher, because the Colin Rea experiment seems to have run its course. Rea was somewhat effective early on in 2025, but he’s been struggling across the past six weeks, sporting a ghastly 6.63 ERA and 6.23 FIP dating back to May 24. It’s a 36.2-inning span where the veteran RHP has surrendered 2.45 opponent home runs per nine and has struck out just 14.6% of the batters he’s faced. Woof.
Rea’s specific issue has been LHBs. In that same seven-game stretch, opposing left-handed hitters have combined to slash an eye-popping .400/.424/.738 against Rea with a gargantuan .490 wOBA. That would be a red flag against almost any team, but it’s especially concerning heading into a matchup with St. Louis. The Cardinals will likely have five lefties in their lineup this afternoon, including clear threats in the form of Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson and Lars Nootbar. In general, St. Louis hasn’t swung the bats all that well the past two weeks, registering a .226 average and an 88 wRC+, yet this has all the makings of a break-through spot.
The unfortunate news for the Cardinals is that it’s not like Miles Mikolas enters this tilt with far better recent results than the aforementioned Rea. In the 36-year-old’s last six trips to the mound, Mikolas has pitched to a regrettable 6.90 ERA, though a .370 BABIP and a microscopic 59.6% strand rate certainly haven’t helped much. Mikolas has yet to face Chicago in 2025, yet as you might expect, there’s some real history between him and this division rival. Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner both have more than 30 career at-bats off Mikolas and the duo are hitting .325 and .394, respectively, in this matchup. Then there’s Pete Crow-Armstrong. The newly minted All-Star only has four at-bats off Mikolas in his brief MLB tenure, but those have translated into a pair of home runs and a double.
Cardinals vs. Cubs pick, best bet
Best Bet: Pete Crow-Armstrong 2+ Total Bases (-105)
PCA already has two long balls in four career at-bats off of a struggling Mikolas. Who am I to look the other way?
Strong Lean: Cardinals ML (+114)
I trust neither of these starters, so with all things being equal, ride with the underdog at plus-money.
