The first game of the highly anticipated Subway Series between the Mets and Yankees gets underway on Friday at Citi Field. Below, I break down my prediction and pick.
Justin Hagenman is scheduled to pitch for New York, while former Met, Marcus Stroman, will take the mound for the Yankees.
Mets vs. Yankees prediction, preview
Justin Hagenman is taking the mound for the Mets today. The rookie is making his first career MLB start against the Yankees on the Fourth of July; that is a big stage for the youngster. Hagenman has been solid in his two career bullpen appearances for the Mets. His first came back in April, when he gave up one run in 3.1 innings. After heading back down to the minor leagues, Hagenman made another appearance in June, throwing 2.2 shutout innings in Atlanta. This will be both Hagenman’s first career start and first appearance at Citi Field. It should be intimidating for Hagenman, but only giving up one run in 5.3 innings shows that he is up to the task against MLB batters.
Marcus Stroman is going to take the bump against his former team to start his Subway Series. It has been a season to forget for Stroman, between a long IL stint and an 8.16 ERA. Stroman was, as evidenced by his ERA, having quite a rough go of it before being sent to the IL in April. After more than two months away, Stroman made his return last week against the Athletics. It was solid. He allowed just one earned run in five innings. However, the pressure on Stroman against his former team at Citi Field for a big Subway Series game will be on another level tonight. Especially with the hot bats of Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo up against him.
Mets vs. Yankees pick, best bet
A Subway Series game on the afternoon of the Fourth of July is what baseball is all about. With these two pitchers on the mound, there could be a lot of runs scored. Aaron Judge will be excited to see a pitcher with such little experience, while Juan Soto and Pete Alonso will look to hammer Marcus Stroman. I am betting on all three of those batters to record at least two hits + runs + RBIs today.
Judge has been the best hitter in baseball this season, with a .364 batting average and a 1.208 OPS. Over his last 13 games, he has 37 hits + runs + RBIs, an average of nearly three per game. Meanwhile, Soto is arguably the hottest hitter in baseball at the moment. He will be fired up to face his former team for the first time as a Met. Over his last 25 games, Soto has 68 hits + runs + RBIs, averaging 2.72 per game. Alonso has been one of the best hitters in baseball all season, ranking sixth in the MLB in RBIs. Against a Mets starter with little experience and a Yankees starter who has struggled mightily this season, all of these great hitters should have success.
My same-game parlay will feature all three of those player props, plus the Mets’ moneyline. If this is a high-scoring game, the Mets have a definite edge. Outside of Aaron Judge, nobody in the Yankees lineup has emerged as a real threat at the plate. Meanwhile, the Mets have Soto, Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo all having great seasons. The Mets also have a bullpen edge over the Yankees, which will be necessary for both teams, with neither of these pitchers able to go deep into games even if they are having good outings.
