Usually I’d make a TGIF reference in this article, but seeing as it’s Fourth of July, I guess I should have been thanking various deities that it was Thursday 24 hours ago. Forgive me. I’m Canadian.
Allow me to make up for it my laying out a couple of my favorite MLB bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s action on the diamond.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
Tigers ML (-136)
This is a moneyline wager that may have more appeal as a parlay piece or, in theory, you could even bet the Tigers on the run line at +129. Either way, it’s a little shocking for me to see Detroit this close to even-money on Friday — even as the road team. Maybe that’s because the Tigers have the most wins in the American League and the Guardians have lost [checks notes] …seven in a row!
Cleveland hasn’t really hit all season long, but things have been at their lowest point across the past 30 days. Within that span, the Guardians sit dead-last in MLB in batting average (.204), wOBA (.267) and wRC+ (70). It’s a stretch where even Jose Ramirez is only slashing .221/.295/.316 with a 71 wRC+. When the perennial All-Star isn’t even contributing, you know it’s bad. Maybe Cleveland will be able to take advantage of a rusty Reese Olson, who hasn’t made a big league start since May 17, but I obviously have my doubts. Prior to his lengthy IL stint, Olson posted a 1.60 ERA over his most recent six outings. He’s pretty damn good.
I can’t really say the same about Slade Cecconi, who will be taking the bump for the Guardians. The right-hander does sport a decent 3.64 ERA in his 42.0 innings of work with Cleveland in 2025, yet a 5.24 xERA tells a much different story. Cecconi’s 14.0% opponent barrel rate and 50.4% opponent hard hit rate both rank in the league’s second percentile. At some point, all that loud contact is going to translate to runs. I expect tonight’s the night.
Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies
Adrian Houser Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (+100)
I don’t want to go too over the top here, but I’m kind of buying into Adrian Houser as a legit starter in 2025. Like, a guy that teams should actively be trying to trade for at the deadline. Houser’s made seven starts with the White Sox since being shipped over from Milwaukee and he’s pitched to a sterling 1.90 ERA. Now, some of that can be chalked up to an unsustainable 86.9% strand rate, and it’s not like Houser gets a lot of whiffs, but that’s not to say there isn’t reason to respect this new version of the veteran RHP. Namely the fact that Houser’s average fastball velocity is up to a career-best 95.2 mph and that he’s pairing that pitch with 87th percentile extension. It’s a legit combination of factors.
With all his success, Houser has oft pitched very deep into games. To wit, coming into Friday’s tilt in the always hitter-friendly Coors Field, the 32-year-old has tossed at least six innings in all but one start this season. I think Houser will be able to thwart the altitude this evening and keep his quality start trend in tact. Remember, for as much of a cheat code as home games in Colorado are on paper, the Rockies are only slashing .253/.316/.418 at Coors this season. The team’s .320 wOBA is tied for 14th within the split. They don’t suddenly become the 1927 Yankees. They remain a flawed lineup that can be bested.
