As a nightcap for today’s July 4th festivities, baseball fans will be treated to an intriguing matchup in the desert. Royals pitcher Kris Bubic has been one of the biggest breakouts of the 2025 season. Tonight, he’ll face a lethal Diamondbacks offense on the road. In this battle between ace and elite lineup, which side will come out on top? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s inter-league contest between the Royals and Diamondbacks.
The Diamondbacks are favorites (-115) over the Royals, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s matchup.
Royals vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, Bubic is already establishing himself as one of the American League’s top arms. Over 96.0 innings of work, the southpaw has recorded a 2.25 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 101 strikeouts. The 27-year-old has allowed more than three runs only twice over 16 starts. Last week against the Dodgers, baseball’s highest scoring offense, the 27-year-old delivered a solid five-inning, two-run performance.
That’s not to say tonight’s matchup will be easy for Bubic; the Diamondbacks are averaging 5.18 runs per game, third-most in baseball. Granted, Arizona is far less formidable with Corbin Carroll (wrist) on the injured list. Regardless, six other Snakes hitters have posted a wRC+ of 100 or greater. That includes Ketel Marte, one of baseball’s more underrated hitters. Through 61 games, the second baseman is slashing .299/.402/.603 with 19 homers and 40 RBIs. Against left-handed pitching, the Diamondbacks own the league’s seventh-highest slugging percentage (.400).
As good as Bubic has looked this season, he isn’t the only talented arm taking the mound on Friday. Eduardo Rodriguez can be a handful for opposing offenses, even if his numbers don’t reflect it. The tenth-year pro has a lackluster 5.13 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over 14 appearances this season. However, Arizona’s experienced arm has begun to turn things around. Since June 6th, E-Rod has accounted for a minuscule 1.98 ERA in five outings. It helps that he’ll be facing Kansas City, arguably baseball’s worst lineup. The Royals are averaging just 3.30 runs per game, the league’s lowest total. Only three KC hitters, including superstar Bobby Witt Jr., have notched a wRC+ above 100.
Royals vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML (-115)
It doesn’t take much to dominate this Royals lineup; any pitcher with a pulse usually gets the job done. Bubic is a tough challenge for Arizona’s hitters, but there’s enough firepower here to scratch out a few runs. Playing at home, the Diamondbacks are set up nicely on Friday night.
