Independence Day is a good time to celebrate the American national pastime, head out to the ballpark, and chow down on some hot dogs and Cracker Jack.
DraftKings is celebrating July 4th too, as today’s featured DFS contest includes a $17.76 entry fee and $150,000 worth of prizes.
Since it’s an eight-game slate, I’m going to celebrate the United States’ diversity by selecting one player from each game to target, although there’s no limit on how many players from each game you can take.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Independence Day Special [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, $8,800 – Olson has recorded a shutout in four of his last seven outings, averaging 21.79 FPTS per game across that span and pitching to a 1.60 ERA for the American League’s best team. It might be a long weekend for the Guardians, who have to face Olson tonight and then reigning Cy Young and pitching Triple Crown winner Tarik Skubal on Sunday. Cleveland has struggled mightily on offense over the last month-plus, finishing dead last in OPS in June and scoring just six runs through the first three games of July. The Guardians do have one All-Star starter — José Ramírez ($5,800) — but he can’t carry the team alone.
Value
Charlie Morton, Baltimore Orioles at Atlanta Braves, $7,500 – Morton is…somehow…back? I’ve spent most of the year picking against him because of his persistently poor performances, but he’s woken up lately with a 31.65-FPT performance against the Los Angeles Angels on June 13 and followed it up with a 25.3-FPT effort against the Tampa Bay Rays six days later. The 41-year-old still induces whiffs at an above-average rate and doesn’t allow a ton of barrels. He’s also going up against a Braves offense that is downright icy, having posted the league’s fourth-worst OPS in June, as even Ronald Acuña Jr. ($6,200) has slipped slightly off of his torrid pace.
INFIELDER
Stud
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels, $5,700 – In the first three games of July, the Tigers and Washington Nationals have scored 22 runs. The Blue Jays have scored 31. Guerrero hasn’t even been incredibly hot — he’s put up a pair of nothing-burgers so far in July, sandwiched around a one-for-three, two-walk, two-run (11-FPT) effort — but I back him to mash against the Angels, given that he went six-for-11 with four runs and three walks in their series earlier this season. Kyle Hendricks ($6,500) ranks in the first percentile in fastball velocity and the second percentile in whiff percentage, and he’s backed up by the league’s fourth-worst bullpen.
Stud
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros, $4,800 – I didn’t even realize that Smith was leading the National League in both batting average and on-base percentage, but that’s how low-key the Dodgers’ ridiculous season has been. Los Angeles has won nine of its last 10 games and is now on pace to win 103 games, and it’s just business as usual. In his last 10 games, Smith has hit four homers with a 1.131 OPS (9.5 FPTS per game), and I like his chances of continuing his hot form against Lance McCullers Jr. ($7,400), who got shelled in his most recent start (-13.1 FPTS). All of McCullers’ solid starts this season have come against poor offenses, and the Dodgers have the league’s best.
Value
Lenyn Sosa, Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies, $3,700 – Sosa had a rough series against Los Angeles, going zero-for-eight with four strikeouts in Wednesday and Thursday’s games, but he should have a good opportunity to bounce back against the Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela ($5,000). It’s pretty rare that a pitcher has a cheaper DFS salary than some star hitters, but that should underscore just how bad Senzatela has been this season: he’s given up five or more earned runs five separate times, had seven negative fantasy outputs, and leads all of the major leagues in losses and hits allowed. His 6.75 expected ERA is somehow even worse than his actual mark and ranks in the league’s first percentile.
OUTFIELDER
Stud
Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins, $5,500 – Yelich has returned to the form that saw him win MVP in 2018 and finish as the runner-up to Cody Bellinger the year after; over his last 10 games, he’s slashing .297/.366/.595 with three homers and 11 runs scored (9.6 FPTS per game). He’s also been much better on the road than at home, averaging 10.4 FPTS per game away from home and just 7.3 at American Family Field. Then, there’s the Sandy Alcantara ($7,100) effect: the former Cy Young winner has simply been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season, and he’s coming off a six-inning, seven-run (0.9-FPT) effort.
Stud
Brent Rooker, Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants, $4,800 – Rooker has been steady this season: he’s averaging 8.5 FPTS per game in his last 10 games, 8.5 at home, 8.2 on the road, and 8.4 for the season overall. He’s had three double-digit fantasy efforts in his last five games, though, and reached safely in five of his last six, so maybe he’s starting to trend slightly upwards. Justin Verlander ($8,000) is a future Hall of Famer and he, too, has been remarkably consistent this season, but he’s been consistently mediocre. The 42-year-old ranks in just the 12th percentile in barrel rate; Rooker ranks in the 89th.
Value
Randal Grichuk, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals, $2,900 – The 33-year-old has been in the Diamondbacks’ starting lineup more often than not since Corbin Carroll ($5,500) went down with a wrist fracture, and though he hasn’t been fantastic — averaging just five FPTS per game — it’s better than nothing for his minuscule salary. He’s gotten fairly unlucky not to have done better, given that he ranks in the league’s top quartile in hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity, so perhaps his luck will turn around tonight against Kris Bubic ($9,800). The southpaw ranks fifth in the American League in ERA, but his expected ERA is nearly a full run higher than his actual 2.25.
