In an otherwise dead part of the sports calendar, the WNBA has an opportunity to attract plenty of eyeballs tonight. Two nights after the Commissioner’s Cup concluded with the Indiana Fever lifting the trophy for the first time, 10 of the league’s 13 teams will be in action, and they all should be well-rested, with the exception of the Fever and Minnesota Lynx.
In honor of tonight’s oversized slate, I’m picking my favorite player prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Paige Bueckers O19.5 Points (-110)
Bueckers was deservedly voted as an All-Star starter in her first season in the WNBA, as she’s averaging 18.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game so far on 46-33-87 shooting splits. Since returning from a concussion and subsequent illness on June 11, she’s been downright spectacular, as her scoring average has jumped to 21.6 points while she’s reached the 20-point plateau in five of those seven games. Among the 25 players who have played 200 or more total minutes over their team’s last seven games, Bueckers has the fifth-highest usage rate.
She’ll have a tough matchup in the Phoenix Mercury, who have been the hottest team in the league, winning six of their past seven games. That improvement hasn’t been driven by their defense, though; across that span, they’ve had just the sixth-best defensive rating in the league to go along with easily the most potent offense. It was Phoenix against whom Bueckers had her career-best 35 points, doing so in her return from injury. During their hot stretch, the Mercury have allowed among the league’s highest percentages in the short midrange, where Bueckers loves to operate, leading the league in attempts and makes between 10 and 14 feet this season.
Dearica Hamby Double-Double (+245)
The New York Liberty need Jonquel Jones back badly. Since the Bahamian center sprained her ankle on June 19, knocking her out for at least four weeks, the Liberty have gone from looking like one of the league’s best teams to one of its worst. New York’s defensive identity has imploded, as it has conceded the third-most points, second-most rebounds, and most assists per game over the last five games, going just 1-4. Before Jones’ injury, the Liberty’s opponents shot just 54.7% inside the restricted area; since then, that mark has skyrocketed to 68.9%, the fourth-worst mark in basketball.
New York’s futility at guarding the restricted area might hurt Hamby’s chances of recording a double-double, given that she averages 2.8 offensive boards per game, the fourth-most in the league. Still, betting on the league’s most dominant interior force — she averages 4.5 restricted-area makes this season, more than any other player — against a team missing its star center makes sense. Across that same span, Hamby’s Los Angeles Sparks have been dominant defensively in the paint while the Liberty’s finishing has suffered, so she has a good shot at racking up defensive boards, too.
A’ja Wilson O9.5 Rebounds (-115)
For the fourth straight game, Indiana will be without All-Star captain Caitlin Clark, who suffered a groin strain shortly after her return from a quad injury. While the Fever have mostly survived without Clark thanks to increased contributions from Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell and improved team defense, they have struggled to control the glass, with a total rebounding percentage differential 12.1 percentage points worse with their floor general on the bench.
While Clark has had a tough sophomore season in general, she’s an excellent pound-for-pound rebounder — of the 37 players who have averaged five or more rebounds per game this season, she’s tied for the third-shortest and the lightest — and her prowess is a major reason Indiana has conceded the fewest boards. In the eight games she has missed, the Fever have been out-rebounded four times and tied in the category one other time. Wilson, who has posted six double-doubles in 13 games this season and is coming off of a 26-point, 18-board performance against Phoenix, is a favorite to notch another.
