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Taylor Fritz vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction, pick for Wimbledon

Taylor Fritz vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction, pick for Wimbledon

Published:

By: Blake Krass

Top-ranked American Taylor Fritz takes on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the third round at the All England Club on Friday.

Let’s preview the match through the lens of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Taylor Fritz vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina preview

Taylor Fritz is currently the fifth-ranked tennis player in the world. He is the first American man to be ranked in the top five since James Blake in 2006. There is a lot of pressure on Fritz to be the first American man to win a Grand Slam since Andy Roddick in 2003. However, despite being such a highly ranked player who has won big tournaments, Fritz has disappointed in Grand Slams throughout his career. Fritz made his first-ever Grand Slam semifinal and final at the 2024 US Open, showing a potential breakthrough on the big stage. However, 2025 has been full of more disappointing Grand Slam results. He lost in the third round at the Australian Open and was brutally upset in the first round at the French Open.

So far at Wimbledon, Fritz has been hanging on for dear life. He narrowly avoided another first-round upset, coming back from down two sets in his first match at the All England Club. Fritz was forced to go to five sets again to survive in the fifth round against Gabriel Diallo.

Fritz will face by far his toughest opponent of the tournament so far, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, in the third round. Davidovich Fokina is the 27th-ranked player in the world and is looking for a Grand Slam breakthrough of his own. Davidovich Fokina has built his name on defeating top players, something that Fritz himself has been a victim of in the past. The Spaniard has 10 career wins against top-10 players and will look to make his mark against Fritz in this match.

Fritz vs. Davidovich Fokina pick, best bet

These two faced off earlier this year when Davidovich Fokina knocked off Fritz in the Delray Beach quarterfinals. However, Fritz got his revenge just a week ago in the Eastbourne Open. The Eastbourne Open is a popular tune-up tournament for Wimbledon, as it takes place in England and is also played on grass. Fritz defeated Davidovich Fokina in the semifinals and went on to win the whole tournament. That is part of the reason there were such high hopes for Fritz headed into Wimbledon, but he has barely survived the first two rounds. It took Fritz three sets to take down Davidovich Fokina in Eastbourne, and the third set was a dominant 6-1 performance.

My best bet in this match is for Fritz to win three sets to one. Fritz has struggled coming out of the gates, losing the first set of both matches he has played so far. However, he is capable of much more than his scores reflect. In his first-round match, he was unfortunate to lose tiebreakers in both of the first two sets. Also, in both matches, he was the victim of bad timing on his court. In his first-round match, the fifth set was delayed to the next day due to the local curfew. Then, in the second round, he was dominating before being forced into a 20-minute timeout due to a roof closure. The timing of this match allows Fritz to come in with a much more focused approach, where he should have no issues with sunlight, roofs or curfews.

While Davidovich Fokina is a dangerous opponent, Fritz is very familiar with him at this point. Their meeting this year allowed Fritz to learn his game, and he will take the positives from his semifinal win over Davidovich Fokina just a week ago into this match. Davidovich Fokina should be able to steal one set off Fritz, but Fritz will want to avoid another five-set marathon to give his body a rest. He should be more focused for this match and take down Davidovich Fokina in four sets.

Best Bet: Taylor Fritz to win 3:1 (+235)

Blake Krass has contributed to DraftKings since 2024, and is a content creator with a specialty in sports betting. Blake primarily focuses on college football and NFL coverage but will also be covering college basketball, the NBA, MLB and more. Prior to arriving at DK, Blake was a sports betting writer for The Action Network.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.