The final game of the series between the Mets and Brewers gets underway on Thursday night at Citi Field. Below, I break down my prediction and pick.
David Peterson is scheduled to pitch for New York, while former Met Jose Quintana will take the mound for Milwaukee.
Mets vs. Brewers prediction, preview
David Peterson is on the mound for the Mets as they look to win the series against the Brewers. For a time, Peterson was the Mets’ ace, and was shutting down opposing lineups. In his first 14 starts of the season, he had a 2.60 ERA, and was on absolute fire. However, in each of his past two starts, Peterson has given up five earned runs. Those two starts are outliers, hopefully, but do add to a growing trend that Peterson is not as sharp on the road as he is at Citi Field. In home starts this season, Peterson is 4-0 with a 2.22 ERA and has only given up one home run. Peterson will hope to bounce back from his two poor road starts, and pitch a gem for the Mets in a pivotal game at Citi Field.
Jose Quintana is facing his former team for the first time since leaving the Mets last offseason. He was a solid starter for the Mets the last two seasons and even started an NLCS game for them in 2024. It has been a solid season for the veteran in his first year in Milwaukee. Quintana has a 3.30 ERA, and while his strikeout numbers are low, he has done a great job of limiting runs. Quintana has been the opposite of David Peterson in terms of his home/away splits. Quintana has a dreadful 5.96 ERA in Milwaukee this season, but a 1.31 ERA on the road. Similar to Peterson, he has had some struggles as of late, giving up at least four runs in two of his past three starts. Quintana should have a bounce-back start in his return to Citi Field, where he pitched great last season.
Mets vs. Brewers pick, best bet
This is a pivotal game for both teams. The Mets sit just two games behind the Phillies in the NL East and the Brewers are three games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. Both teams are in the thick of competitive divisional races and could potentially be competing against each other for a Wild Card spot down the line. Both teams have left-handed starting pitchers on the mound today who should turn in solid starts. The Mets and Brewers’ lineups have both been solid against left-handed pitching, with the Brewers ranking ninth and the Mets ranking 13th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season.
This matchup is relatively even in most departments, which means it will likely come down to which batters can come up with a big hit to push their team to victory. The Mets certainly have more bats capable of pulling off some magic. Last night, they shook up the top of their lineup for the first time all season, moving Brandon Nimmo to the lead-off spot and Francisco Lindor to second. It had an immediate positive impact, with Nimmo hitting a grand slam, and Lindor hitting a home run of his own. The pair combined to drive in all seven of the Mets’ runs last night.
Juan Soto is coming off the second-best statistical month of his entire career, one where he was awarded the NL Player of the Month for June. Soto ranks fifth in the MLB in on-base percentage this season. He hasn’t been crushing home runs to the extent that he has in the past, but he has still been a menace at the plate. Soto has been walked seven more times than any other player in baseball, and should be able to register a walk in this game as well. Brandon Nimmo should also carry over the momentum from last night and register a hit in this game.
That’s why, for tonight’s game, I am betting a same-game parlay with the Mets Moneyline, Nimmo to have a hit and Soto to get walked.
