Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. No matter what you call them, you love seeing them happen in a baseball game. You probably love betting on them, too.
There are only 10 contests on the MLB schedule this evening, but that doesn’t mean there will be a shortage of great players to back in the home run prop market on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s break down my top three picks.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Riley Greene 1+ Home Run (+280)
Greene might be a bit of an obvious pick on Thursday given how successful his Wednesday was. I mean, how’s this for a six-hour span? Greene clobbered a pair of home runs in the Tigers’ Game 1 win over the Nationals yesterday afternoon, then the former top prospect was named an All-Star starter for the American League. He deserves it, too. Greene already has 21 long balls in 2025 in only 355 plate appearances — that’s just three way from tying his career-high. Specifically against RHPs, Greene has managed a .326 ISO and a 182 wRC+. On Thursday, he and the rest of Detroit’s lineup will face-off with Jake Irvin. The 28-year-old is giving up 1.82 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs for the season as a whole. Irvin has also surrendered eight opponent homers in just his last four starts. That’s eight home runs in 20.2 innings. Yikes.
Taylor Ward 1+ Home Run (+400)
This might be a match made in home run heaven. Bryce Elder will get the pill for the Braves on Thursday evening and saying his past two outings have been poor would be a massive understatement. To wit, Elder has conceded 18 hits, 14 earned runs and four long balls in that 7.1 inning sample. For the entirety of 2025, Elder has loved nothing more than surrendering home runs to opposing RHBs — 2.17 times per nine, to be exact. Well, the Angels whole lineup is constructed of right-handed power bats. Good times, right? Ward is of particular interest. Not only does his prop feature much longer odds than teammates Mike Trout (+295) or Jo Adell (+320), but Ward’s been a new man since a horrendous start to the season. Since May 6, across 224 plate appearances, the veteran outfielder is in possession of an .897 OPS and a .307 ISO. Ward’s hit 14 home runs in that stretch of time.
Will Smith 1+ Home Run (+360)
There are many reasons to think that Aaron Civale will give up a couple long balls tonight. First and foremost, Civale has conceded 1.66 opponent home runs per nine so far this season. That’s after he surrendered 1.62 opponent home runs per nine throughout 2024, too. To put it simply, Civale is just an extreme fly ball archetype who is prone to inducing hard contact. His 0.59 GB/FB ratio would be among the lowest marks in MLB in 2025 had Civale the innings to qualify, while his 9.9% opponent barrel rate ranks in the 27th percentile of baseball. Many Dodgers would make for a quality home run prop bet on Thursday, but I’ll lean towards Smith. Part of that preference is Smith’s .222 ISO and .401 expected wOBA. However, a bigger aspect is the fact that Smith has two career long balls off Civale in two career at-bats. That’s about as well as you can do it.
