It is a loaded WNBA slate taking place on Thursday, with five matchups set to occur. One key matchup, tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET, will take place between the Los Angeles Sparks and New York Liberty.
The Liberty continues to be the WNBA title favorites with their odds of winning for the second straight season dropping to +150 on DraftKings Sportsbook. New York holds an 11-5 record on the season, while the Sparks sit at just 5-12 on the year. Los Angeles pulled off a massive trade in the offseason to bring in Kelsey Plum, but has yet to find their full stride. This will be the first of three matchups between these two sides this season.
The Liberty enters this matchup as 11.5-point favorites and -675 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sparks hold +490 odds of pulling off the upset with the game total set at 170.
Sparks at Liberty preview
The Liberty set the championship bar for themselves last season and have mostly lived up to it at the start of this year. They lead the league in scoring at 87.6 points per game while ranking third in field goal percentage and fifth in three-point percentage. New York also ranks third in assists and turns the ball over the third-fewest times. Defensively, they allow 79.9 points per game, the sixth rank in the league, and are third in defensive rating. The Liberty play at the fastest pace in the WNBA.
Breanna Stewart continues to headline the production for New York. The two-time MVP is averaging 20.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game so far this season. Sabrina Ionescu provides a nice balance in the backcourt and is averaging 18.6 points, 5.1 assists, and 4.0 rebounds despite having a bit of a down shooting year in which she is connecting on just 32.8% of her three-point attempts. Jonquel Jones has proved valuable and leads the team with 9.6 rebounds along with her 12.1 points, but is missing time due to an ankle injury she sustained. Natasha Cloud has proven to be an impact addition this season, providing a key defensive spark and averaging 9.1 points, 6.5 assists, and 3.8 rebounds on the year.
The Sparks have far more to figure out as a team. Currently, they rank seventh in the league in scoring at 81.8 points per game, while ranking fifth in field goal percentage and eighth in three-point percentage. Los Angeles is the third-worst rebounding team and turns the ball over at the second-highest rate. Defensively, they concede 86.8 points per game, which ranks 11th in the league, and they hold the third-worst defensive rating. The Sparks also like to push the tempo, ranking third in pace on the season.
Kelsey Plum leads the Sparks with 20.6 points, 5.6 assists, and 3.8 rebounds per contest. Dearica Hamby has proven to be a crucial part of the team and is adding 16.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per contest this year. Azura Stevens and Rickea Jackson are the two other players averaging over 10 points per game, with Stevens leading the team with 8.4 rebounds per game and connecting on 38.6% of her three-point attempts. Cameron Brink remains sidelined as she recovers from her ACL tear and has yet to play a game this season. Brink would help make up for some of the lack of defense and rebounding, and is getting close to making her return, which could provide Los Angeles with the spark they are looking for.
Sparks at Liberty prediction, pick
I keep waiting for the Sparks to turn a corner and look like the team they are designed to be, but they have given little evidence of doing so. Los Angeles enters coming off a 92-85 loss to the Chicago Sky and has dropped five of their past six. Their lone victory in this stretch came against a Caitlin Clark-less Indiana Fever team.
The Liberty has also hit some turbulence in recent games. They enter this matchup having dropped back-to-back games and have lost four of their past five matchups. This is a steep fall from the 9-0 start to the season they got off to.
My lean is on the Liberty to capitalize on a get-right spot and cover the 11.5-point spread in this matchup. But rather than choose a side, my best bet would be for the game to go over the 170-game total. The over has hit in 10 of the 16 games New York has played this season and 10 of the 17 games that Los Angeles has competed in.
Both these teams play at a high pace, ranking top three in the WNBA, and there should be plenty of scoring opportunities across the matchup. The Liberty average a league-best 87.6 points per game but has tallied as many as 100 points in a matchup this year and has only been held below 80 points once. Los Angeles is allowing 86.8 points per game and has conceded as many as 101 points in a matchup this year. Expect the production of the Liberty to create the pathway to these points, but for the Sparks to do their best to keep pace. Kelsey Plum is capable of scoring with the best in the league and is not shy to let it fly.
170 is a high total by WNBA standards, and the highest on the Thursday slate, but for good reason between these two teams. Los Angeles has struggled to get stops all season, and expect no different as they face one of the league’s most efficient offenses. Count on the Liberty to surpass their scoring average in the matchup and for the Sparks to be capable of doing the rest. I like this game to go over the total for the 11th time in each of these teams’ respective seasons as they square off for the first time this year.
