This is the opener of a three-game series in Washington between the Nationals and visiting Boston Red Sox.
Lucas Giolito is scheduled to pitch for the Boston while Michael Soroka should get the nod for Washington.
Red Sox at Nationals prediction, preview
Lucas Giolito began his career as a pitcher with little control that couldn’t miss bats. Then, in his fourth MLB season, things clicked, as the K/9 went from 6.49 to 11.62. The BB/9 went from 4.67 to 2.9. The FIP was in the 3s for three straight seasons. Then things began to deteriorate slowly, drip, drip, drip from the faucet. The K/9 has been in the 9s the last two seasons while the BB/9 was in the 3.5 range. In 58.2 innings this season, the K/9 is 7.82 while the FIP is 4.05. The hard hit rate is 44.6% but the barrel rate is 7.9%. He’s averaging 93.5 mph on the fastball.
Giolito has been slightly better against lefties this season, as the K-BB% is 16.7% compared to 10.6% against righties. He has been much better on the road than at home, posting a 3.64 FIP vs. 4.45. The K-BB% is 19.5% on the road compared to only 8.3% at home.
Through 11 starts this season, Giolito has allowed more than three earned runs three times. And they were much more than three earned runs: six, six and seven earned runs. In his four most recent starts, though, Giolito has been excellent, going six, six, six and seven innings while allowing only two earned runs, and those came in one game. So, that’s three shutout starts. This will be the first time facing the Nationals this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Nationals have struck out at the 27th-highest rate while having the 18th-best ISO. The wOBA is 20th-best in MLB.
Michael Soroka used to average 92.5 mph on the fastball when he first made it to the majors. The strikeout rate was sub-20%, but he had good control and limited the long ball. Now, he’s averaging 94.4 mph on the fastball and the strikeout rate is a respectable 26.3%, but he’s giving up his share of home runs. Through 59.1 innings this season, he’s allowed 10 home runs. The hard hit rate is 41.3%, swinging strike rate is 9.5% and the chase rate is only 25.3%. The ERA is 4.7 but the FIP is slightly lower at 4.34.
Soroka has been park neutral but lefties have had more success. The FIP is 5.53 compared to 2.94 and the K-BB% is 17% against lefties and 24.5% against righties. Eight of the 10 home runs have been hit by lefties. Seven of the 10 home runs have been allowed on the road.
Soroka has allowed more than three earned runs four times, and all of those were exactly at four earned runs. Two of those came in the first two starts of the season. In his most recent outing, he went six innings, struck out five, walked one and allowed only one earned run on two hits. Soroka has not pitched more than six innings in any start.
The Red Sox have struck out at the third-highest rate against right-handed pitching while being eighth in ISO. The wOBA is 15th-best.
As for bullpens, Boston has the 18th-lowest FIP while Washington has the 29th-lowest.
Red Sox at Nationals, Best Bet
Giolito has good form recently and pitched well on the road. Soroka has been fairly consistent this season in run prevention. I do worry a little about the Nationals bullpen, but this being an early game, I think the hitters will be more out of whack than the pitchers. I will also favor the home team as well due to the awkward start time.
