National League postseason contenders are set to clash this afternoon when the Phillies host the Padres. San Diego enters today in a slump, having lost eight of its last 15 games. Philadelphia hasn’t looked great recently either, but an eight-inning shutout on Monday from Zack Wheeler lifted the team to a much-needed 4-0 victory. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s Game 1 battle between the Padres and Phillies.
The Phillies are favorites (-111) over the Padres, with the over/under set at nine runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s matchup.
Padres at Phillies prediction, preview
It’s fair to think of the Phillies as an offensive juggernaut. After all, a roster with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner was meant to mash. Still, what’s kept this group atop the NL East has been an elite pitching staff. Behind Wheeler, Philadelphia boasts several All-Star-caliber arms. Mick Abel isn’t one of them, but the rookie has still shown plenty of potential. Through 23.1 innings of work, the right-hander has posted a 3.47 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 18 strikeouts. Tonight, Abel will face a San Diego club that’s struggled mightily on offense. Since June 1st, the Padres have scored the fourth-fewest runs per game in baseball (3.89).
As bad as the Friars have been at the plate, they still possess one of the National League’s best rotations. Offseason pickup Nick Pivetta has been a pleasant surprise. While the veteran has been a reliable pitcher throughout his career, this has been easily his best campaign. Over 16 appearances, the righty owns a 3.36 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 101 strikeouts. However, a large reason for the righty’s success has been due to playing at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. In Pivetta’s seven road outings, he’s posted a mediocre 4.50 ERA.
In contrast to San Diego’s starter, this Phillies lineup elevates its play at Citizen’s Bank Park. Philadelphia has tallied 5.17 runs per game at home this season, the fifth-best mark in baseball. Pivetta throws his fastball nearly 50% of the time, which bodes well for the city of Brotherly Love. Among all qualified hitters, four Phillies hitters rank inside the top 25 in batting average against heaters. It was a mixed bag for the 32-year-old in June, alternating between bad and good starts (4.71 ERA). After tossing seven scoreless innings vs. Washington last week, Pivetta could be due for a letdown performance tonight.
Padres at Phillies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Phillies ML (-111)
At this point, it’s almost impossible to trust the Padres, even against a relatively unproven arm such as Abel. On the other side, Pivetta’s fastball-heavy pitch mix can be exploited by a talented group of Phillies hitters. While things might stay close at first, expect Philadelphia to eventually break this game open.
